The Oscar Narrative: January Nomination Predictions - Best Supporting Actor

January Nomination Predictions

Chadwick Boseman "Da 5 Bloods" 

Sacha Baron Cohen "The Trial of the Chicago 7" 

Daniel Kaluuya "Judas and the Black Messiah" 

Leslie Odom Jr. "One Night in Miami"

Paul Raci "Sound of Metal"

Other Contenders - Mark Rylance "The Trial of the Chicago 7", Bill Murray "On the Rocks", Glynn Turman "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom", Bo Burnham "Promising Young Woman", Stanley Tucci "Supernova", David Strathairn "Nomadland", Yahya Abdul-Mateen II "The Trial of the Chicago 7", Charles Dance "Mank", Colman Domingo "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom", Aldis Hodge "One Night in Miami", Brian Dennehy "Driveways", Aldis Hodge "One Night in Miami", Jonathan Majors "Da 5 Bloods", Clarke Peters "Da 5 Bloods", Will Patton "Minari", Alan S. Kim "Minari", Michael Keaton "The Trial of the Chicago 7", Frank Langella "The Trial of the Chicago 7", Eddie Redmayne "The Trial of the Chicago 7", Jeremy Strong "The Trial of the Chicago 7", Jared Leto "The Little Things"

Commentary - A race that could go sideways at any point. There are simply so many contenders, and I think that when the Globes and guilds weigh in, we are going to be some surprises. I feel like Chadwick Boseman will get double nominations after his untimely death, the question is, which category does he win? So far, he has won a lot in both categories. He could win here instead in lead. Leslie Odom Jr. is a rising star, and he feels like he will be a double nominee (with Original Song) this year. He is a standout among an amazing cast, and a recent Tony, Grammy, and Emmy winner. There are a lot of contenders in The Trial of the Chicago 7, and there may end up being multiple nominees. But no matter what, I will be shocked if Sacha Baron Cohen's name is not called on Oscar nomination morning. Daniel Kaluuya is an unknown, but his buzz is on the rise, and he is a recent nominee. Finally, veteran character actor Paul Raci is tearing up the critical circuit. The Academy is a different beast, but he would be a great story for voters, and this is often the category where those kinds of actors find success. But there are a lot of folks trying to knock these five out. Just the other cast members from The Trial of the Chicago 7, One Night in Miami, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom and Da 5 Bloods could fill his race a few times over. Bill Murray should be nominated for his great role in the On the Rocks, and he is still Oscar-less. David Strathairn could ride the Nomadland wave, and he is good in the film. The late-great Brian Dennehy deserves recognition for his final performance, Minari has two great performances, Bo Burnham is getting a lot of critical attention, Stanley Tucci is getting a ton of buzz, and Jared Leto could be a late-breaking standout in John Lee Hancock's The Little Things. This will be a fascinating race to watch.