The Oscar Narrative: January Nomination Predictions - Best Picture

January Nomination Predictions

Da 5 Bloods

Judas and the Black Messiah

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Mank

Minari

News of the World

Nomadland

One Night in Miami

Promising Young Woman

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Other Contenders - The Father, Soul, Sound of Metal, First Cow, On the Rocks, Tenet, Malcolm & Marie, Ammonite, I'm Thinking of Ending Things, The United States vs. Billie Holiday, Palm Springs, The Prom, Pieces of a Woman, Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Miss Juneteenth, Mulan, Cherry, Wonder Woman 1984, Let Them All Talk, The Way Back, The White Tiger, The King of Staten Island, Wolfwalkers, The Assistant

Commentary - The SAG/Globe/Critics Choice nods this week will start to help us really sort out the contenders from the pretenders. I think SAG will be kind to Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, One Night in Miami, The Trial of the Chicago 7, and Da 5 Bloods, boosting their campaigns. I expect Nomadland to also continue its run towards Oscar gold. Promising Young Woman and Minari have done extremely well with critics, and this next week will be a big test if they can also do well the rest of the season. News of the World may have to wait till the guilds and PGA weigh in, but I expect it to do much better in the second half of the season than it did in the first half. Mank has not done terribly with critics groups, but again, I think its Hollywood story will resonate with industry members. Finally, of all the late-breaking cotnenders, it looks like Judas and the Black Messiah is going to come on strong, and if the SAG nominating folks have seen it, it apparently could do very well with their voters. But that leaves Soul out, which has been so well received, as has The Father, which was an early contender that needs a boost fast to get it back in this race (Globes may help with that a lot). Sound of Metal and First Cow have done extremely well on the critical circuit, but I wonder if that streak is going to end with the guilds. Malcolm & Marie is a late-breaking contender, but has lots of mixed reactions. I'm Thinking of Ending Things, Palm Springs, Pieces of a Woman, Another Round, Borat, On the Rocks, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, The Assistant, Ammonite, Miss Juneteenth, The White Tiger, The King of Staten Island, and Wolfwalkers are all hoping to breakthrough as quirky/funny/indie contenders. Big films like Tenet, Wonder Woman 1984, Mulan, The Way Back, and Let Them All Talk are hoping to be the blockbuster alternatives. Finally, we still don't know about Cherry or The United States vs. Billie Holiday.