The Oscar Narrative: January Nomination Predictions - Best Supporting Actress

January Nomination Predictions

Maria Bakalova "Borat Subsequent Moviefilm" 

Ellen Burstyn "Pieces of a Woman" 

Olivia Colman "The Father" 

Amanda Seyfried "Mank" 

Youn Yuh-Jung "Minari" 

Other Contenders - Glenn Close "Hillbilly Elegy", Saoirse Ronan "Ammonite", Dominique Fishback "Judas and the Black Messiah", Candice Bergen "Let Them All Talk", Dianne Wiest "Let Them All Talk", Jodie Foster "The Mauritanian, Olivia Cooke "Sound of Metal", Toni Collette "i'm thinking of ending things", Da'Vine Joy Randolph "The United States vs. Billie Holiday", Charlene Swankie "Nomadland", Talia Ryder "Never Rarely Sometimes Always"

Commentary - If the critics groups are indicative of the Oscar voters, five contenders have easily rose to the top. Olivia Colman is a previous winner and was an early favorite. Amanda Seyfried could be the one that rises when the guilds weigh in, as she is a popular favorite in the role of her career. Ellen Burstyn is an Oscar-winning legend who is getting a lot of notice for Pieces of a Woman, this could be her first nod since Requiem for a Dream. Right now, the last two slots are for newcomers that have emerged as critical favorites. Maria Bakalova is an unconventional choice, but is getting a lot of praise, and will be a favorite among Hollywood after her Rudy Guiliani scene. Finally, standout Youn Yuh-Jung is getting raves for Minari, a sly Oscar contender that is setting its sights high. But I have a feeling that maybe the Oscar voters might go a different way. We have often seen these critical favorites do well, but we have also often seen them lose out to more traditional contenders, and there are plenty to replace them. Hillbilly Elegy may be awful, but Glenn Close is a legend. Saoirse Ronan is a recent favorite with lots of nods under belt, Candice Bergen is a standout in Let Them All Talk and Dianne Wiest can't be forgotten, Jodie Foster may be able to overcome mediocre reviews, Olivia Cooke gives one of her best performances, and previous nominee Toni Collette is brilliant in Kaufman's latest. There are also some upstarts that cannot be ignored like Da'Vine Joy Randolph, Dominique Fishbasck, Charlene Swankie, and Talia Ryder.