The Oscar Narrative: January Nomination Predictions - Best Adapted and Original Screenplay

Best Adapted Screenplay

Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller "The Father" 

Ruben Santiago-Hudson "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom" 

Luke Davies and Paul Greengrass "News of the World"

Chloe Zhao "Nomadland"

Kemp Powers "One Night in Miami" 

Other Contenders - Kelly Reichardt and Jonathan Raymond "First Cow", Charlie Kaufman "i'm thinking of ending things", Kata Weber "Pieces of a Woman", Ramin Bahrani "The White Tiger", Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Dan Swimer, Peter Baynham, Erica Rivinoja, Dan Mazer, Jena Friedman, Lee Kern, Nina Pedrad "Borat Subsequent Moviefilm", Suzan-Lori Parks "The United States vs. Billie Holiday", Edoardo Ponti "The Life Ahead", Eleanor Catton "Emma.", Angela Otstot and Jessica Goldberg "Cherry", Simon Blackwell and Armando Iannucci "The Personal History of David Copperfield"

Commentary - This is a top-heavy category with probably one slot left to fight among a lot of contenders. Unless something drastic changes, it feels like One Night in Miami, The Father, Nomadland, and Ma Rainey's Black Bottom feel like locks. They are doing well with critics, and should easily cross over to Academy members. The last slot really does feel up in the air. I am currently going with News of the World, because I think it is going to do much better with the Academy than critics. But then I remember that often the writer's branch is the one that goes its own way. News of the World is a great film, but a traditional one, and this branch has a history of going against tradition. The three that feel like the most obvious replacements are I'm Thinking of Ending Things, First Cow and Borat. All three feel like the kind of films that writers like, and with Borat, the first film was nominated in Original Screenplay. I would also watch out for Netflix with The Life Ahead and The White Tiger, latecomers The United States vs. Billie Holiday and Cherry, and early contenders like Emma and The Personal History of David Copperfield.

Best Original Screenplay

Danny Bilson, Paul De Meo, Kevin Willmott, and Spike Lee "Da 5 Bloods" 

Jack Fincher "Mank" 

Lee Isaac Chung "Minari" 

Emerald Fennell "Promising Young Woman"

Aaron Sorkin "The Trial of the Chicago 7" 

Other Contenders - Pete Doctor, Mike Jones, and Kemp Powers "Soul", Eliza Hittman "Never Rarely Sometimes Always", Will Berson and Shaka King "Judas and the Black Messiah", Andy Siara "Palm Springs", Sofia Coppola "On the Rocks", Abraham Marder, Darius Marder, and Derek Cianfrance "Sound of Metal", Radha Blank "The Forty-Year Old Version", Judd Apatow, Pete Davidson, and David Sirus "The King of Staten Island", Francis Lee "Ammonite", Kitty Green "The Assistant", Channing Godfrey Peoples "Miss Juneteenth", Debroah Eisenberg "Let Them All Talk", Harry Macqueen "Supernova"

Commentary - Unlike its Adapted counterpart, this category is truly a wide-open race. I feel pretty good about Aaron Sorkin, a previous screenplay winner, returning for The Trial of the Chicago 7, considering it is one of the top Best Picture contenders. Also they nominated him for Molly's Game. Promising Young Woman, Emerald Fennell's film debut, also feels pretty strong here, due to its incredible burst from the critics awards giving it a huge buzz boost. Beyond that, I could see so many contenders rising to the top. Minari is getting a huge boost from its Golden Globe controversy, and it is high on a lot of critics lists. Da 5 Bloods seems to be slipping from a lot of folks list, but critics groups are forgetting it, and I don't think Academy voters will either. Finally, I think Mank will do incredibly well with Oscar voters, it is literally about their own history. But that leaves a lot of big contenders. Animated films have historically done well in the screenplay category, and Soul is masterful. Indie and quirky projects like Palm Springs, Nevery Rarely Sometimes Always, Sound of Metal, and The Forty-Year Old Version (which just won at Gotham!), often find footing in the writing categoris. Previous winner Sofia Coppola is returning with On the Rocks, Judas and the Black Messiah's buzz continues to rise, Ammonite and Supernova bring LGBTQ stories to the forefront, Let Them All Talk is a big gamble from HBO Max, The King of Staten Island is funny, and The Assistant is timely. This race is far from over.