The Oscar Narrative: Pre-Festival Predictions - Best Picture

Pre-Festival Predictions
Ad Astra
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Downton Abbey
Harriet
The Goldfinch
The Irishman
The Laundromat
Little Women
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Other Contenders - Toy Story 4, The Farewell, Marriage Story, Rocketman, Jojo Rabbit, Wendy, Pain & Glory, The Report, Ford v. Ferrari, Gemini Man, Joker, Frozen II, Luce, Lucy in the Sky, A Hidden Life, The Two Popes, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, Clemency, Queen & Slim, Us, Motherless Brooklyn, Avengers: Endgame, The Souvenir, High Life, Booksmart, Knives Out, Cats, The Lighthouse, Midsommar, Bombshell, Untitled Todd Haynes Project, Captain Marvel, Judy, Dolemite is My Name, Late Night

Commentary - We know that Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is a contender, but there are so many question marks left. I think Scorsese's The Irishman, Mendes 1917, Gerwig's Little Women, and Heller's A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood are the top five right now. Netflix will push The Laundromat, and with Soderbergh and Streep, you have to assume its a contender. Crowley has cracked this list before, and The Goldfinch is based on a Pulitzer Prize winner. Harriet had a strong trailer and Downton Abbey is going to be a boon with older voters. Finally, the Oscar push for Ad Astra is strong, and we have seen think=piece science fiction do well here in the recent past. It's my number ten. I would love to see The Farewell crack the top tier. I will wait and see how it does with early precursors, because I still hesitate when it comes to Oscar voters. There are some big guns in this race, like Toy Story 4, Avengers, Star Wars, Rocketman, Joker, Frozen II, Gemini Man, Ford v. Ferrari, Us, Captain Marvel, and Cats. There are also plenty of indies that could do well like Marriage Story, Jojo Rabbit, Wendy, Pain & Glory, The Two Popes, The Report, Motherless Brooklyn, A Hidden Life, Clemency, Queen & Slim, Knives Out, The Lighthouse, Judy, Dolemite is My Name, Late Night, Luce, Bombshell, Lucy in the Sky, and the still Untitled Todd Haynes Project. Tomorrow, the Venice Film Festival starts. Within the next two weeks, this race will be a lot clearer than it is now. We'll have to wait and see..