The Oscar Narrative: Pre-Festival Predictions - Best Adapted Screenplay

Pre-Festival Predictions
Julian Fellowes "Downton Abbey"
Peter Straughan "The Goldfinch"
Steve Zaillan "The Irishman"
Dee Rees and Marco Villalobos "The Last Thing He Wanted"
Greta Gerwig "Little Women"

Other Contenders - Benh Zeitlin and Eliza Zeitlin "Wendy", Jez Butterworth, John-Henry Butterworth, Jason Keller and James Mangold "Ford v. Ferrari", Taika Wahiti "Jojo Rabbit", John Lassiter, Andrew Stanton, Josh Cooley, Valerie LaPointe, Rashida Jones, Will McCormack, Martin Hynes and Stephanie Folson "Toy Story 4", Lee Hall and Tom Hooper "Cats", Edward Norton "Motherless Brooklyn", Richard Linklater, Holly Grant, and Vincent Palmo Jr. "Where'd You Go, Bernadette?", Matthew Michael Carnahan and Mario Correa "Untitled Todd Haynes Project", J.J. Abrams, Chris Terrio, Colin Treverrow, Derek Connolly "Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker", J.C. Lee and Julius Onah "Luce", Jennifer Lee and Allison Schroeder "Frozen II", Simon Blackwell and Armando Iannucci "The Personal History of David Copperfield"

Commentary - Not much has changed in this category for me since my first predictions earlier this year. I have moved Toy Story 4 out of the race. I know it got rave reviews, and incredible box office, but if the other competition holds up, I feel like it will be left out for more Academy-esque fare. That leaves Little Women, Downton Abbey, The Irishman, and The Last Thing He Wanted in their slots. Nothing that has happened so far suggests that they won't be the contenders we thing they can be. In the fifth slot, I have moved in The Goldfinch. Peter Straughan is an Oscar nominated writer, the book is a Pulitzer Prize winner, and it its hitting the fall festivals hard, definitely looking for Oscar gold. I would still lookout for Wendy, as Zeitlin's first feature Beasts of the Southern Wild was the surprise of the 2012 Oscar season. I think that Ford v. Ferrari could be popular, and the quirky films like The Personal History of David Copperfield, Where'd You Go Bernadette?, and Jojo Rabbit could be popular with the writers branch. The new Todd Hayes Movie, Sundance favorite Luce, the musical film version of Cats (although the reaction to the trailer is really negative), Motherless Brooklyn, and the big guns like Frozen II and Star Wars are all ones to watch for.