Best Competition Series
Will Win - RuPaul's Drag Race
Could Win - The Voice or The Amazing Race
Should Win - RuPaul's Drag Race
Commentary - After its triumphant win last year, RuPaul's Drag Race is set up to win again. The Amazing Race dominated for over a decade, then The Voice won three years in a row. Voters in this category love to repeat, and Drag Race is still one of the hottest reality programs on television, which keeps rising in its Emmy nominations each year. I think it wins again.
Best Reality Host
Will Win - RuPaul Charles "RuPaul's Drag Race"
Could Win - Marie Kondo "Tidying Up with Marie Kondo", Amy Poehler and Nick Offerman "Making It", or Ellen DeGeneres "Ellen's Game of Games"
Should Win - RuPaul
Commentary - Only one person in this category's short history has managed four wins in a row. That was Jeff Probst. Can RuPaul pull it off and tie the record? I think he can, and his show is definitely the most popular across the board of the five nominated hosts. But, if voters are looking for an alternative, I could see them go viral with Kondo, a favorite in DeGeneres, or reward the dynamic duo of Poehler and Offerman. That is probably why I am picking RuPaul. I don't know if there is a clear number two. Without that, voters tend to vote for what they know.
Best Structured Reality Series
Will Win - Queer Eye
Could Win - Tidying Up with Marie Kondo
Should Win - Diners, Drive-Ins, and Dives
Commentary - Queer Eye won this last year, and history has shown that repeats are more often to happen than not. However, I don't think that it is a slam dunk this year. Tidying Up did very well in the nomination phase, including getting Marie Kondo in for host, which Queer Eye missed yet again. History suggests that I stick with Queer Eye, but I feel an upset brewing.
Best Unstructured Reality Series
Will Win - United Shades of America with W. Kamau Bell
Could Win - Born This Way, RuPaul's Drag Race: Untucked, or Deadliest Catch
Should Win - United Shades of America
Commentary - So once again, I lean hard on the idea that in the Reality categories, history repeats itself. So I am sticking with Kamau Bell, even though he missed out on the host category this year. Missing that nod though does tell me that it is vulnerable. Voters could go double duty on Drag Race, or return to old favorites like Deadliest Catch and Born This Way.
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