The Oscar Narrative: Pre-Festival Predictions - Best Actress

Pre-Festival Predictions
Awkwafina "The Farewell"
Cynthia Erivo "Harriet"
Saoirse Ronan "Little Women"
Meryl Streep "The Laundromat"
Renee Zellweger "Judy"

Other Contenders - Michelle Dockery "Downton Abbey", Natalie Portman "Lucy in the Sky", Scarlett Johansson "Marriage Story", Alfre Woodard "Clemency", Lupita Nyong'o "Us", Jodie Turner-Smith "Queen & Slim", Helen Mirren "The Good Liar", Julianne Moore "Gloria Bell", Kaitlyn Dever "Booksmart", Beanie Feldstein "Booksmart", Juliette Binoche "The Truth", Mary Kay Place "Diane", Leslie Manville "Ordinary Love", Octavia Spencer "Luce", Nicole Kidman "Bombshell", Honor Swinton Byrne "The Souvenir", Charlize Theron "Bombshell", Kristen Stewart "Seberg", Brie Larson "Captain Marvel", Daisy Ridley "Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker", Penelope Cruz "Pain & Glory", Valerie Pachnar "A Hidden Life", Emma Thompson "Late Night", Mindy Kaling "Late Night", Blake Lively "The Rhythm Section", Francesca Hayward "Cats"

Commentary - Can The Farewell be a huge Oscar contender? It should be, but it will have a tough hill to climb. At this point, I think Awkwafina is squarely in this race, and should remain so throughout the season. The first trailers for Judy, Little Women, and Harriet showcase the talents of Renee Zellweger, Saoirse Ronan, and Cynthia Erivo. Right now, with her popularity and Oscar history, I would watch out for Ronan, who could win her first Oscar this year. Also, Steven Soderbergh plus Netflix, plus the continuing popularity of Meryl Streep make her, yet again, a major contender for Best Actress. I have moved Michelle Dockery out, but I am still banking on Downton being a major player, at the moment though there are just too many names ahead. Natalie Portman could surprise with Lucy in the Sky, Scarlett Johansson looks promising from the first trailer for Marriage Story, and we already know that Woodard, Moore, Nyong'o, the Booksmart duo, the Late Night duo, Byrne, Larson, Cruz, Pachnar, Spencer, and Place are fantastic, we just need to see how the Bombshell duo, Stewart, Manville, Mirren, Turner-Smith, Hayward, Lively, and Ridley, and hteir respective projects turn out.