The Oscar Narrative: Best Original Score, Original Song, Sound Mixing, and Sound Editing

Best Original Score
Will Win - Ludwig Goransson "Black Panther"
Could Win - Marc Shaiman "Mary Poppins Returns" or Nicholas Britell "If Beale Street Could Talk"
Should Win - Justin Hurwitz...oh yeah, that's right...then Britell
Commentary - How Justin Hurwitz missed out here is just unfathomable, and was my biggest snub of Oscar nomination morning. Without Hurwitz in this race, this becomes a tight, three-way race. A lot of folks are predicting If Beale Street Could Talk, because it is the most obvious and pretty score. That is a possibility, as is Mary Poppins Returns, which would bring Marc Shaiman his first Oscar, and make him the newest member of the EGOT club. But this award almost always go to a Best Picture nominee. The one exception was when Ennio Morricone won for The Hateful Eight, which was more about the composer than the score/film. This makes me think that Ludwig Goransson, who won this corresponding category at the Grammys, is going to reap the benefits of Black Panther's popularity. The film is going to win something, and with its music as popular as the film itself, this feels like the perfect place.

Best Original Song
Will Win - A Star is Born - Shallow
Could Win - Black Panther - All the Stars
Should Win - Black Panther - All the Stars or Mary Poppins Returns - The Place Where the Lost Things Go
Commentary - All the Stars is easily the best of the bunch, and I kind of hate it has not gained the same amount of traction as Shallow. I am personally a huge fan of Mary Poppins Returns, and thinks that the numerous original songs deserve credit. Plus, The Place Where the Lost Things Go is such a sad and sweet melody. But this awards is going to Shallow, which has swept the awards, including winning at BAFTA (where the score and song categories are combined), over many of the score contenders. It gets Lady Gaga up on the stage, and is going to be the film's overall reward.

Best Sound Mixing
Will Win - Bohemian Rhapsody
Could Win - A Star is Born, Black Panther, or First Man
Should Win - First Man
Commentary - The Live Aid concert and music won over the CAS yesterday, and it won the BAFTA for sound (which combines Mixing and Editing). I think this is Bohemian Rhapsody's to lose. A Star is Born could win if the film gets an upswing, Black Panther is the big technical achievement, and First Man is easily the best of the bunch, so all should not be discounted.

Best Sound Editing
Will Win - First Man
Could Win - Bohemian Rhapsody or Black Panther
Should Win - First Man
Commentary - When a musical or music-based film wins Sound Mixing, it hasn't taken Sound Editing with it in a long time. I think that voters could just check Bohemian Rhapsody for both, but in these cases in the past, voters have discerned between the two, giving something else Editing. Black Panther or Roma are the Best Picture contenders to look out for, but the history of this category points to First Man, which is the best of the bunch in terms of its sound work.