The Oscar Narrative: Best Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win - Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, and Spike Lee "BlacKkKLansman"
Could Win - Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty "Can You Ever Forgive Me?" or Barry Jenkins "If Beale Street Could Talk"
Should Win - Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, and Spike Lee "BlacKkKLansman"
Commentary - The WGAs threw a curveball with Can You Ever Forgive Me?, but in the end, the BAFTA win will probably be more predictive, and they will find a way to reward Spike Lee with a consolation prize for director, and give him his first competitive Oscar trophy.

Best Original Screenplay
Will Win - Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie, and Peter Farrelly "Green Book"
Could Win - Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara "The Favourite"
Should Win - Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara "The Favourite"
Commentary - This a tight race, and Green Book took a big hit when it lost to Eighth Grade at the WGA Awards. But I think that the overall Academy likes Green Book better than the writers alone. The Favourite though is tough competition. It won the BAFTA, and is strong with voters, and has a lot less controversy behind it. But I feel that Green Book is going to be stronger across the board including Best Picture, and will take this award along with it.