The Oscar Narrative: Final Predictions - Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Production Design, and Visual Effects

Best Cinematography
Will Win - Alfonso Cuaron "Roma"
Could Win - Lukas Zal "Cold War"
Should Win - Alfonso Cuaron "Roma"
Commentary - Lukas Zal has an upset at the ASC awards, but we have seen those kinds of upset before. BAFTA went for Roma, and I think that when voters other than cinematographers are casting their ballots that Cuaron's work in Roma will reign supreme.

Best Costume Design
Will Win - Black Panther
Could Win - The Favourite
Should Win - Black Panther
Commentary - So BAFTA went for The Favourite, but it was a British favorite, and not up against Black Panther. At tomorrow night's CDG awards, these two films are probably going to take their respective categories. This category over the last ten years has been split between period dramas (Phantom Thread, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Great Gatsby, Anna Karenina, The Artist, The Young Victoria), and fantasy films (Alice in Wonderland, Mad Max: Fury Road, Fantastic Beasts). I think that The Favourite's costumes are lovely, but Black Panther's are iconic, and have been discussed for years. Plus, Ruth Carter is a legend who doesn't have an Oscar yet, and there has been a lot of buzz, and a lot of positive press about her work. In a close race, I think Black Panther wins.

Best Film Editing
Will Win - Vice
Could Win - Literally the other four.
Should Win - BlacKkKlansman
Commentary - I literally could make an argument for all of these nominees. Bohemian Rhapsody and The Favourite won at the ACE Eddies. BlacKkKlansman and Green Book are the bigger Best Picture contenders. But I think, after its BAFTA win, that this is Vice's to lose. It is clearly a well-liked film among Academy voters, and it has the most obvious and flashy editing. Remember that often the most is equated with the best.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Will Win - Vice
Could Win - Mary Queen of Scots
Should Win - Vice
Commentary - Voters love transformative biopic makeup work (Darkest Hour, Dallas Buyers Club, The Iron Lady) and Christian Bale alone will probably win Vice this award.

Best Production Design
Will Win - The Favourite
Could Win - Black Panther
Should Win - Black Panther or The Favourite
Commentary - For some reason, I just don't think voters are going to let a lavish period piece like The Favourite walk away empty-handed on the craft side. Black Panther could win both, The Favourite could win both, or they could flip-flop these categories. But I think the sets, the palace, will sway voters.

Best Visual Effects
Will Win - Avengers: Infinity War
Could Win - First Man or Ready Player One
Should Win - First Man
Commentary - With its multiple technical nominations, it feels like First Man should win here, and it deserves to. It might be the most subtle of the bunch, but it is certainly excellent work. But it has not done well even with crafts guild awards, except for the VES awards, and it is subtle. Ready Player One could upset, with its vast pop cultural references, but Avengers: Infinity War is the most obvious of the choices.