The Oscar Narrative: July Nomination Predictions - Best Picture

July Nomination Predictions
Backseat
Beautiful Boy
Black Panther
Boy Erased
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Incredibles 2
Mary, Queen of Scots
Mid '90s
Widows

Other Contenders - A Star is Born, BlackKklansman, Roma, The Favourite, Peterloo, The Front Runner, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Wildlife, 22 July, On the Basis of Sex, Welcome to Marwen, The Rider, Bohemian Rhapsody, Mary Poppins Returns, Avengers: Infinity War, Eighth Grad, A Quiet Place, Hereditary, The Other Side of the Wind, Destroyer, Annihilation, Life Itself, The Life and Death of John F. Donovan, Mission: Impossible - Fallout

Commentary - So I have eight Oscar-esque contenders. Adam McKay returns with a Dick Cheney biopic, Steve McQueen with a family thriller, Damien Chazelle with a Neil Armstrong biopic, and Barry Jenkins with a James Baldwin adaptation. These recent Oscar favorites are hoping voters still love them. Think that the period piece Mary, Queen of Scots will inspire a lot of votes as well, and usually at least one historical fiction film gets in. I think the two films of teenage struggle, Beautiful Boy and Boy Erased both have a lot of heat going into the fall season. Finally, the first trailer for Mid '90s is nothing like I expect, but with A24 behind it, and the whole actor-turned-writer/director vibe, I am definitely getting some Lady Bird feels for Jonah Hill's debut. Finally, I am leaving in the two blockbusters Black Panther and Incredibles 2. They are two of the biggest films this year, have rave reviews, and are still in the conversation. I hope they remain there. Beyond those, the four I think have the best shot are A Star is Born (I just have this vibe its going to flop), Roma (Alfonso Cuaron, but foreign language), BlackKlansman (hot after Cannes, too much for Academy voters?), and The Favourite (Lanthimos is probably too esoteric). I think either female driven or female led films like Annihilation, The Rider, Can You Every Forgive Me?, and Hereditary are possibilities. Biopic On the basis of sex, Paul Dano's directorial debut Wildlife, Robert Zemeckis' latest, Jason Reitman's latest, and the long lost Orson Welles final film are dark horses. Finally, let's not forget some of the big blockbusters like the upcoming Bohemian Rhapsody (too much controversy with Singer), Infinity War, the new Mission Impossible, and Disney's big winter film Mary Poppins Returns, which is reportedly going to get a huge awards push by the studio.