Best Actress in a Limited Series or TV Movie
Will Win - Laura Dern "The Tale"
Could Win - Michelle Dockery "Godless" or Jessica Biel "The Sinner"
Should Win - Laura Dern "The Tale"
Commentary - For some reason, The Tale underperformed in terms of Emmy nominations. Of course this is the same voting body that chose The Alienst and Picasso over The Looming Tower and Twin Peaks, so something was clearly in the water this year. But I still think that Laura Dern will win for her magnificent performance. She is beloved among her peers, and if they actually watched any of these series (from the nominations, that isn't likely), she is the clear favorite. Watch out for Jessica Biel, and particularly for Michelle Dockery, who never won for Downton Abbey, and could have some lingering support from those who wish she had.
Best Actor in a Limited Series or TV Movie
Will Win - Benedict Cumberbatch "Patrick Melrose"
Could Win - Darren Criss "The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story"
Should Win - Cumberbatch or Criss
Commentary - This is a tougher race than I thought it would be. I assumed Criss was on his way to an Emmy, with Gianni Versace being an Emmy juggernaut. But then Patrick Melrose way overperformed across the board. Then I remembered how Cumberbatch upset a few years ago when no one was expecting it. He is clearly well-liked, and is the better known of the two, both of who give great performances. A lot of folks are still picking Criss, and they are probably right. But I am going out on a limb with yet another Emmy upset from Benedict Cumberbatch.
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