Will Win - Miguel "Adorn"
Could Win - Usher "Climax"
Should Win - Estelle "Thank You"
Commentary - Usher's hit Climax may seem like the bigger performance, but the Song of the Year nomination for Miguel, as well as his nomination in R&B Song (where Usher is missing), shows broader support for the song, but I think it is a close race. For my money, Estelle's Thank You is the best tune, but I think she is unfortunately in third place at the moment.
Best Traditional R&B Performance
Could Win - Anita Baker "Lately"
Commentary - Anita Baker is probably the more traditional of the performances, so she is definitely a possbility. Plus, Beyonce's 4 has not really been a hit with the Recording Academy. That being said, Love on Top was a radio hit, and Beyonce is still Beyonce. Plus, it is a top-tapping, key-changing good time, and I think Grammy voters will reward her for it.
Best R&B Song
Will Win - Miguel "Adorn"
Could Win - Trey Songz "Heart Attack" or Anthony Hamilton "Pray for Me"
Should Win - Elle Varner "Refill"
Commentary - While the performance category has some competition, I think that with that Song of the Year nod, that Miguel's Adorn is a lock for the R&B Song.
Best R&B Album
Will Win/Should Win - R. Kelly "Write Me Back"
Could Win - Anthony Hamilton "Back to Love" or Robert Glasper Experiment "Black Radio"
Commentary- The Recording Academy really does need to fix these R&B categories, and not with that three nominee Urban Contemporary Album, whatever that means. They need to go back to R&B Album or Contemporary R&B Album and then a Traditional category, because since the mash-up these categories have seen some strange results. That being said, R.Kelly's Write Me Back got great reviews, and was seen as a return to form, proof he is still one of the best at cranking out solid R&B ballads. So while Hamilton or Glasper are possibilties I think Kelly will return to the winner's circle. Best Urban-Contemporary Album
Will Win/Should Win - Frank Ocean "Channel Orange"
Could Win - Miguel or Chris Brown
Commentary - This substitute for a Contemporary R&B Album is a weak excuse for a category (only three nominees), and needs to be revived to full potential, with five nominees, and a new name to replace whatever Urban-Contemporary is supposed to mean. That being said, the three nominees are actually good choices, and I think that newcomer and Album of the Year nominee Frank Ocean will be the favorite to prevail, although both Miguel and Chris Brown should not be discounted.
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