Will Win - Jennifer Lawrence "Silver Linings Playbook"
Could Win - Emmanuelle Riva "Amour" or Jessica Chastain "Zero Dark Thirty"
Should Win - Emmanuelle Riva "Amour"
Commentary - Another tough race to call, this time between two really strong contenders, and a dark horse that cannot be forgotten. First, let's start with the dark horse: Jessica Chastain. I know that Zero Dark Thirty has take a hit, but people still have a lot of respect for her and the role, and word is that she is getting a lot of votes (as is Naomi Watts apparently). I think losing the BAFTA hurt, but I still think that she is one to watch for. So now the race really begins. The 86 year old versus the 22 year old, the art house versus the populist, the BAFTA vs. the SAG. I think that Riva can win, but I think that many bloggers have hyped her up maybe more than members of the Academy have. They clearly like Amour, but they love SLP a lot more, and I think that when the whole Academy votes, that the overwhelming popularity of the film, along with the hardcore campaigning by her, and by Harvey, will be enough to overcome the powerful performance of Riva, although in some cases I hope I am wrong. I finally saw Amour, and while I still love Wallis, Chastain, and Lawrence, none of their performances compare to Riva's. And if she wins tomorrow night, that fact alone may be the reason why.
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