2012 Tony Predictions: Lead Actress in a Play

Will Win - Tracie Bennett "End of the Rainbow"
Could Win - Nina Arianda "Venus in Fur", Linda Lavin "The Lyons"
Should Win - Stockard Channing "Other Desert Cities"

Commentary - I think I could watch Stockard Channing drink coffee and think it was entertaining. But alas, this is a three way race and Channing looks like she is not in the fight. Linda Lavins is an outside possibility, but it looks like it is really between Arianda and Bennett. Both are relative newcomers to the Broadway stage, although Arianda has managed two nominations in two productions. Despite this sudden popularity, I think that Bennett's role in End of the Rainbow is the better bet for the win. Either way it looks like we will have a first-time winner on our hands, which is always great.