Best Original Screenplay
Susanna Fogel, Emily Halpern, Sarah Haskins, and Katie Silberman "Booksmart"
Rian Johnson "Knives Out"
Noah Baumbach "Marriage Story"
Quentin Tarantino "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood"
Bong Joon Ho and Han Jin Won "Parasite"
Other Contenders - Lulu Wang "The Farewell", Pedro Almodovar "Pain & Glory", Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns "1917"
Commentary - So this race has taken an interesting turn. First, there are three that seem locked and loaded: Marriage Story, Once, and Parasite, and the Oscar winner is most likely in that list. The last two slots have taken an interesting turn. I have held a spot for Pedro Almodovar. Pain & Glory is his best film in ages, and he was beloved by the Academy before it became much more international in its membership. Yet it is just not popping up anywhere. It could easily replace one of the next two picks, and I would not be shocked if it did. I would also not be surprised by The Farewell (which should be in this race), and 1917 (not dialogue driven, but a Best Picture front runner). Also The Farewell and Pain & Glory were not eligible for the WGA, so writers may be saving their votes for their Oscar ballot. But after BAFTA and WGA, Knives Out and Booksmart, two whip-smart, well-written comedies have made the cut. I am particularly surprised by the BAFTA inclusion of Booksmart. It makes me think that these two film are stronger than previously thought.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Steve Zaillian "The Irishman"
Taika Waititi "Jojo Rabbit"
Todd Phillips and Scott Silver "Joker"
Greta Gerwig "Little Women"
Anthony McCarten "The Two Popes"
Other Contenders - Micah Fitzerman-Blue & Noah Harpster "A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood"
Commentary - I think there are six contenders for five slots. Four of them are locked and loaded. The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Little Women, and Joker are all big Best Picture contenders and should take a screenplay nod along the way. The last slot is between the WGA and BAFTA nominees. The Two Popes was submitted as Original at the WGA awards, so it might have landed a nod had it been placed in the right category. I think The Two Popes, while no longer a huge Best Picture contender, I think it is stronger than A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, and McCarten is a previous nominee. I think he takes the last slot.
Best Animated Feature
Frozen II
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Missing Link
Toy Story 4
Other Contenders - Abominable, Weathering With You, Klaus
Commentary - This category is always a crap shoot and usually features a surprise. Even as the category has become more populist, foreign and indie animated films can usually still take a slot or two. I predict that Netflix, I Lost My Body will join studio productions Frozen II, How to Train Your Dragon, Missing Link, and Toy Story 4. I also think that indie Weathering With You, and other studio favorites like Abominable and Klaus could surprise.
Best Documentary Feature
Apollo 11
American Factory
For Sama
Honeyland
One Child Nation
Other Contenders - The Cave, The Biggest Little Farm, The Great Hack, Maiden, The Apollo, Midnight Family, Knock Down the House, The Edge of Democracy
Commentary - I feel like American Factory, Apollo 11, For Sama, and Honeyland are strong. Honeyland is also a finalist for Best Foreign Language Film, but I feel like it has a better shot in this category. The lost slot, I think goes to Netflix One Child Nation, which has gotten a lot of buzz and campaigning.
Best International Feature Film
Atlantics (Senegal)
Les Miserables (France)
Pain & Glory (Spain)
Parasite (South Korea)
Those Who Remained (Hungary)
Other Contenders - Beanpole (Russia), Corpus Christi (Poland), The Painted Bird (Czech Republic), Honeyland (North Macedonia)
Other Contender - I think four of these feel good to go, Parasite (of course), Pain & Glory (double of course), Les Miserables, and Atlantics. The last slot could one one of five ways, but I think that the WWII era Those Who Remained will reign, as those era films often do.
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