Post-Festival Predictions
Danny Bilson, Paul De Meo, Kevin Willmott and Spike Lee "Da 5 Bloods"
Jack Fincher "Mank"
Lee Isaac Chung "Minari"
Pete Docter, Mike Jones, and Kemp Power "Soul"
Aaron Sorkin "The Trial of the Chicago 7"
Other Contenders - Sofia Coppola "On the Rocks", Francis Lee "Ammonite", Eliza Hittman "Never Rarely Sometimes Always", Will Berson, Chaka King, Keith and Kenneth Lucas "Judas and the Black Messiah", Emerald Fennell "Promising Young Woman", Kitty Green "The Assistant", Tracey Scott Wilson and Callie Khouri "Respect", Channing Godfrey Peeples "Miss Juneteenth", Christopher Nolan "Tenet", Leigh Whannell "The Invisible Man", Darius and Abraham Marder and Derek Cianfrance "Sound of Metal", Andy Siara "Palm Springs", Dan Scanlon, Keith Bunin, and Jason Headley "Onward", Judd Apatow, Pete Davidson, and Dave Sirus "The King of Staten Island", Miranda July "Kajillionaire", Kata Weber "Pieces of a Woman"
Commentary - A race devoid of usual Oscar contenders means that some up and coming indies might be able to breakthrough. I would bet that the Oscar comes down to Mank and The Trial of Chicago 7, both of which have Oscar written all over them. Beyond that though, it could go a bunch of different ways. I am still sticking with a lot of Oscar potential for Da 5 Bloods. With Boseman's passing, and the anger of 2020, I think Spike Lee's latest joint could resonate with voters. Soul, Pixar's latest, is probably going to Disney+ if it can't go to theaters. But it looks like it could be the next big Pixar classic (Onward is also in this race, but it got a mixed response). Also it might end up being a double nod for Kemp Power (who is a huge contender in Adapted for One Night in Miami). Finally, I am going with a Sundance favorite Minari, which, if it can get released, is a story that could really do well this season. But there are some other contenders that could easily slip in. Sofia Coppola could return for On the Rocks, and Francis Lee could do well with Ammonite. Both got decent reviews, but neither were the slam dunks that their buzz suggested. Judas and the Black Messiah, like Da 5 Bloods, could resonate with voters due to its timely subject matter. Respect could the next great music biopic, The Invisible Man is this year's potential horror breakthrough, and comedies Palm Springs and The King of Staten Island could see some love. Tenet was a disappointment, but you never know. Finally, look out for all of those indies that are hoping to take advantage of a weird year including: Promising Young Woman, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, The Assistant, Miss Juneteenth, Sound of Metal, Pieces of a Woman, and Kajillionaire.
Soul is probably going to theaters. Why else would they announce a short beforehand?
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