The Oscar Narrative: Post-Festival Predictions - Best Actress

Post-Festival Predictions

Amy Adams "Hillbilly Elegy"

Viola Davis "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom" 

Jennifer Hudson "Respect"

Vanessa Kirby "Pieces of a Woman"

Frances McDormand "Nomadland"

Other Contenders - Andra Day "Billie Holiday vs. The United States", Michelle Pfeiffer "French Exit", Kate Winslet "Ammonite", Sophia Loren "The Life Ahead", Carey Mulligan "Promising Young Woman", Rashida Jones "On the Rocks", Halle Berry "Bruised", Elisabeth Moss "Shirley", Elisabeth Moss "The Invisible Man", Jessie Buckley "I'm Thinking of Ending Things", Felicity Jones "The Midnight Sky", Yeri Han "Minari", Lesley Manville "Ordinary Love", Jo Ellen Pellman "The Prom", Beanie Feldstein "How to Build a Girl", Anya-Taylor Joy "Emma", Evan Rachel Wood "Kajillionaire", Yiefi Lu "Mulan", Julianne Moore "The Glorias", Sidney Flanigan "Never Rarely Always Sometimes", Julia Garner "The Assistant", Hong Chau "Driveways", Charlize Theron "The Old Guard", Gal Gadot "Wonder Woman 1984"

Commentary - We know one thing: Frances McDormand is getting another Oscar nomination, and honestly, I could easily see her winning a third Oscar for Nomadland. Beyond that there are a lot of unknown contenders and underdogs that are hoping to enter the race. The initial look for Ma Rainey's Black Bottom got people excited, and of course that means that Viola Davis is once again in this Oscar race. Maybe this is the year that she finally wins a lead Oscar? One can hope. Vanessa Kirby made a huge splash during the fall festivals with Pieces of a Woman. She is already an Emmy nominee and her profile is on the rise. Hillbilly Elegy may get pushed back, but I hope it comes out, and I hope it is as good as it looks. If that's the case, Amy Adams has got to be a part of the conversation. Finally, Jennifer Hudson playing Aretha Franklin feels like an Oscar comeback. But there are a lot of great contenders out there. Andra Day is playing Billie Holiday (not sure about her acting, but she is a hell of a singer), Michelle Pfeiffer is a scenery chewing role (apparently she is much better than the film), Kate Winslet (much more competition than Ronan in supporting) all are right on the edge of making it into the top five. There are plenty of previous winners and nominees like Sophia Loren, Carey Mulligan, Halle Berry, Felicity Jones, Lesley Manville, Julianne Moore, and Charlize Theron. There are some newcomers like Yeri Han, Jo Ellen Pellman, Yiefi Lu, and Sidney Flaningan. Finally, there are some known entities that have been flirting with Oscar recognition for some time, and this might be their year including Rashida Jones, Elisabeth Moss, Jessie Buckley, Beanie Feldstein, Anya-Taylor Joy, Evan Rachel Wood, Julia Garner, Hong Chau, and Gal Gadot.