Jason Bateman "Ozark"
Sterling K. Brown "This is Us"
Brian Cox "Succession"
Bob Odenkirk "Better Call Saul"
Billy Porter "Pose"
Jeremy Strong "Succession"
Other Contenders - Milo Ventimiglia "This is Us", Tobias Menzies "The Crown", Al Pacino "Hunters", Ben Mendelsohn "The Outsider", Steve Carell "The Morning Show", Aaron Paul "Westworld", Rami Malek "Mr. Robot", Patrick Stewart "Star Trek: Picard", Jonathan Groff "Mindhunter", Pedro Pascal "The Mandalorian", Liev Schreiber "Ray Donovan", Paul Giamatti "Billions", Damien Lewis "Billions",
Commentary - Last year's nominees Porter, Brown, Odenkirk, and Bateman actually feel pretty solid, and while I am not predicting him, I'm wondering if I'm foolish to once again ignore Brown's co-star Ventimiglia. With Harington being the one technical turnover, and me thinking Ventimiglia as well, that leaves only two slots. I am predicting that the two Succession guys, both of whom did well on the winter circuit, are going to ride the new wave of support the show's second season has received to Emmy nominations. But I could also see The Crown's Tobias Menzies taking a slot, that show did much better than expected the last time it was eligible. While neither The Outsider nor Hunters are going to be huge contenders. I could see Emmy winners Ben Mendelsohn or Al Pacino being threats for a slot here. Rami Malek and Liev Schrieber have been nominated/won for these roles before, and could return, Steve Carell and Aaron Paul are in popular shows, and both previous Emmy favorites, and watch out for Stewart, Groff, Giamatti, Lewis, and Pascal as spoilers.
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