The Oscar Narrative: Final Nomination Predictions - Best Cinematography and Best Film Editing

Best Cinematography
Bradford Young "Arrival"
Linus Sandgren "La La Land"
James Laxton "Moonlight"
Seamus McGarvey "Nocturnal Animals"
Rodrigo Prieto "Silence"

Other Contenders - Greig Fraser "Lion", Greig Fraser "Rogue One: A Star Wars Story", Robert Richardson "Live By Night", Roger Deakins "Hail, Caesar!", Stephane Fontaine "Jackie", Giles Nuttgens "Hell or High Water", John Toll "Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk", Simon Duggan "Hacksaw Ridge", Bill Pope "The Jungle Book", Caleb Deschanel "Rules Don't Apply"

Commentary - So ASC usually gets four. Sometimes five, but usually just four. Lion is probably the weaker in this category (not elsewhere, but definitely here). Arrival, La La Land, Silence, and Moonlight feel safe. For the last slot, I am going with Nocturnal Animals. It has to get something (it's too popular not to), and the work is great.

Best Film Editing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Manchester By the Sea
Moonlight

Other Contenders - Hell or High Water, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, Nocturnal Animals, O.J. Made in America, Fences, Hidden Figures, Lion, Sully, Silence, Patriot's Day, Deepwater Horizon, Live By Night, Jackie, Loving, 20th Century Women, Deadpool, Florence Foster Jenkins, The Jungle Book, A Monster Calls, Doctor Strange, 13th, Captain Fantastic, Hail, Caesar!

Commentary - I honestly thought that Nocturnal Animals or Hell or High Water, or even Rogue One would take that fifth slot, but it looks like it is going to be Manchester By the Sea, which now has the Eddie and the BAFTA nod. It makes sense that if this is one of the top three for Best Picture, then it would need to take one technical award, and this is probably the only one it is even in the running for. That leaves the other four that have felt like solid picks: La La Land, Arrival, Moonlight, and Hacksaw.