2013 Emmy Nomination Analysis

So the Emmy nominations are in, an as always they are suprising and interesting, to say the least. I will post by knee-jerk reaction Here is a run down of the snubs, surprises, and shocks:

Drama
So House of Cards did get in, showing that Netflix has some strength (although not as strong as we thought), which is nice to see, considering how slow they were to accept cable. Other than that, the five that were expected to make the cut, but it was not boring later on down the ballot at all. The leading actor category could be one of the most competitive, and two favorites Steve Buscemi and Michael C. Hall were left off for two newcomers Jeff Daniels and Kevin Spacey, both of who will be strong contenders to win. The real surprises came in the Drama Actress category. First, there were seven nominees, and those didn't even included past winners Julianna Margulies and Glenn Close. I like Elisabeth Moss and Michelle Dockery, but the fact that they got in over Margulies is a real shocker, and I'm not sure the right choice. But three new contenders made the cut, Kerry Washington, who was expected, and then Connie Britton and Vera Farmiga. I am not that surprised that Britton made it, as she had been nominated three years in a row for both FNL and American Horror Story. But Farmiga really surprises me, not because of the actress, but because I did not expect Emmy voters to embrace Bate's Motel at all. The supporting categories also had some surprises including Bobby Cannavale, Jim Carter, and Emilia Clarke, leading to the exclusion of big names like Archie Panjabi, Rob James-Collier, Corey Stoll, and a real sad note, Monica Potter, who could have won if she had been nominated. The Guest categories are always surprising, and I will discuss them later. In the end I think that three shows emerge as the frontrunners: Homeland, Breaking Bad, and Game of Thrones. All did well across the board, and all got at least a writing and/or directing nomination, Breaking Bad really breaking through in writing with two nominations. I think this will be Breaking Bad's year. Homeland did much better than last year, but so did the other two shows, so that is not necessarily the indicator of the win. Overall, I am sad to see little support for The Newsroom, The Americans, and The Good Wife, but I think these were, for the most part, a great set of nominees.

Comedy
So Netflix has proven this year that it can get big nominations which means one thing: Arrested Development was not well liked. It only got Jason Bateman in, missing out on all the other acting contenders and both writing and directing. This is surprising, as is the complete snub of New Girl, no acting including Zooey Deschanel and Max Greenfield, who were nominees last year, and no directing/writing. This paved the way for some strong support for Louie and Veep, as well as returned support for 30 Rock. Louie got in for Melissa Leo, C.K. himself in writing, directing, and actor, and Veep, while not getting any directing or writing nominations, did get in Anna Chlumsky and Tony Hale, which was fantastic and definitely surprising. I'd also like to note that Louis C.K. got nine solo nominations, which is incredible. I thought that Big Bang would do better but it kind of plateaued compared to 30 Rock, which got Jane Krakowski back in, a directing and two writing awards. I think that maybe this is a year where the veteran show gets a final goodbye. Modern Family could easily win again, as it got most of the nominations it was expected to, except for the big snub of Eric Stonestreet, which is really surprising considering he has won twice. Most of the other surprises included shows that are not nominated for Comedy series. Glee came back after the terrible third season and got Dot Marie Jones and Jane Lynch back in, and a surprise directing nomination. If the show does well next year it could be back in this race even more, despite its big dip last year. Nurse Jackie got all three actors back in, showing that this show is well liked by the actors. Laura Dern and Molly Shannon for Enlightened were surprises considering the show got cancelled. In Supporting Actor, Adam Driver and Bill Hader and Tony Hale over Simon Helberg, Max Greenfield, and the AD guys was kind of surprising, but both were on the radar. Episodes got another writing nod plus Matt LeBlanc, showing that that show still has support. The Supporting Actress race had a tie as well leading to seven nominees, leaving out the Girls supporting characters, Betty White, and Kaley Cuoco, who I thought could make the cut. I think this race comes down to Modern Family versus 30 Rock with Louie as the spoiler.

TV Movie/Miniseries
The six I was predicting to get in for the big category got in, as did all ten I picked for the lead actor/actress which is surprising considering all of the other surprises that happened. But the supporting had some surprises. No Jeffrey Tambor or Rob Lowe, but a nod for Scott Bakula and John Benjamin Hickey. No Lily Rabe or surprisingly Holly Hunter, in favor of Imelda Staunton and Charlotte Rampling. The directing and writing categories are a mess including nods for The Girl, Ring of Fire, The Hour, none of which were nominated for the top prize. American Horror Story did so well in nominations but once again was left off of writing and directing, which means that Behind the Candelabra, which is the only of the six that did well down the line besides Top of the Lake, which could be a dark horse.

Reality/Variety
Same six on both Variety and Reality, yawn. Expect Amazing Race and Daily Show to keep on truckin. But the reality host had some surprises incluidng Gunn and Klum from Project Runway and Anthony Bourdain. I think that this category is not a lock for Bergeron again, as there are some strong contenders. I am surprsed that neither Jeff Probst nor, really surprising Phil Keoghan, made the cut. Maybe I'm wrong, maybe this is the year that something else comes in and beats the juggernaut.