Will Win - Kevin Costner "Hatfields & McCoys"
Could Win - Ed Harris "Game Change"
Should Win - Woody Harrelson "Game Change"
Commentary - For my money, this race is between the two winners of the Golden Globes, Ed Harris and Kevin Costner. In his illustrious history at the SAG, Ed Harris has only won two of his nine nominations. But nonetheless, he is clearly popular among the Screen Actors Guild and is definitely a threat to win. However, Costner has never had the opportunity to win, because this is his first nomination. He has won both the Globe and the Emmy, and has given heartfelt speeches at both (unlike Harris who didn't even come to the Globes to accept). While this is a tight race, I think that the actors will relish in the chance to give Costner the award.
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