Golden Globe Television Predictions

Best Drama Series
Will Win - Homeland
Should Win - Breaking Bad
Could Win - Downton Abbey
Commentary - If you got rid of Boardwalk Empire and replaced it with Parenthood, Game of Thrones, The Good Wife, etc., this category would be a really great one. Breaking Bad is in its last epic season, and hopefully will get some awards love as the year goes on. Downton Abbey is a perennial favorite, and The Newsroom is the hot new show that the Globes love to honor. But alas, with Homeland in this group, I think the race is over.

Best Comedy Series
Will Win - Girls
Should Win - The Big Bang Theory
Could Win - Modern Family or Episodes
Commentary - The inclusion of Smash over much better comedies like New Girl or Parks and Rec is not unusual, but not right either. That being said, I think this race is between favorite Modern Family, who is having a decent season, and the newcomer to the race Girls. With the Drama side favoring the old guard, I think that the HFPA will eat up the newcomer. For my money, The Big Bang Theory may not be the most original or the most gravitas show on television. But it is consisently funny, has a great cast, and week after week breaks ratings record. It has also yet to have a huge awards impact. I think it is about time it does.

Best Actor in a Drama Series
Will Win - Jeff Daniels "The Newsroom"
Should Win - Bryan Cranston "Breaking Bad"
Could Win - Cranston or Damian Lewis "Homeland"
Commentary - Most pundits are going with Lewis, after his Emmy win, and the continued success of Homeland. Both he and Cranston would be great choices. But my money is on an upset, as one usually comes around in the television categories every year (think Katey Segal for Sons of Anarchy). Jeff Daniels is one of the best parts of The Newsroom, a good show that is flawed, but got better as its season went on. He is a veteran and simultaneously, a newcomer to the race. And with all the same old choices surrounding him, HFPA voters might want to mix it up a little and go for the new guy on the block.

Best Actress in a Drama Series
Will Win - Clarie Danes "Homeland"
Could Win/Should Win - Julianne Margulies "The Good Wife" or Michelle Dockery "Downton Abbey"
Commentary - For the record, I had always admired Downton Abbey, but over the last couple weeks (in preparation for Season 3), I have rewatched the episodes, and have suddenly caught Downton fever. Danes will win, and it is deserved. My perennial favorite is Margulies, but The Good Wife has slipped in terms of awards attention. If I had a choice, I would probably vote for Michelle Dockery, whose role of Mary is, to be frank, astoundingly good.

Best Actor in a Comedy Series
Will Win/Should Win - Louis C.K. "Louie"
Could Win - Alec Baldwin "30 Rock" or Matt LeBlanc "Episodes" or Don Cheadle "House of Lies"
Commentary - This one could really go anyway. They could go for Baldwin for his last few tries for 30 Rock. Matt LeBlanc won before, and Don Cheadle is a movie star. Instead, I am going with Louis C.K. who is cool enough (the male Lena Dunham) that the Globes may respond.

Best Actress in a Comedy Series
Will Win - Lena Dunham "Girls"
Could Win/Should Win - Amy Poehler "Parks & Recreation" and Julia-Louis Dreyfuss "Veep"
Commentary - I would love to see Poehler or Louis-Dreyfuss win, but my guess is that the new star in Hollywood Lena Dunham will take it instead. Although since Poehler is hosting, you can't count anything out.

Best Television Movie/Miniseries
Will Win/Should Win - Game Change
Could Win - Hatfields & McCoys or The Hour
Commentary - The two main miniseries in the category could be Globes favorites, as they tend to favor miniseries over movies, especially The Hour which has international appeal. But Game Change was such a huge hit, that I don't think they can overcome its popularity.

Best Actor in a TV Movie/Miniseries
Will Win/Should Win - Benedict Cumberbatch "Sherlock"
Could Win - Kevin Costner "Hatfields & McCoys"
Commentary - The American Television Academy went for the star power of Kevin Costner, and the Globes could follow in suite. But the international and rising star nature of Benedict Cumberbatch may take home the prize instead.

Best Actress in a TV Movie/Miniseries
Will Win/Should Win - Julianne Moore "Game Change"
Could Win - Jessica Lange "American Horror Story: Asylum" or Nicole Kidman "Hemingway and Gelhorn"
Commentary - A tight race with so many Globe favorites, but I think that Julianne Moore's Sarah Palin will be too much to pass up.

Best Supporting Actor
Will Win/Should Win - Max Greenfield "New Girl"
Could Win - Mandy Patinkin "Homeland" or Ed Harris "Game Change"
Commentary - With so many big names, legends, and serious performances, I think that lighter and hilarious performance of Max Greenfield will stand out enough to take home a surprise win.

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win - Maggie Smith "Downton Abbey"
Could Win - Sofia Vergara "Modern Family" or Sarah Paulson "Game Change"
Should Win - Hayden Panettiere "Nashville"
Commentary - She's Maggie Smith. Enough Said.