The Oscar Narrative: First 2020 Nomination Predictions - Best Supporting Actor

First 2020 Predictions
Jim Carter "Downton Abbey"
Timothee Chalamet "Little Women"
Willem Dafoe "The Last Thing He Wanted"
Al Pacino "The Irishman"
Brad Pitt "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood"

Other Contenders - Brendan Coyle "Downton Abbey", Robert James-Collier "Downton Abbey", Allan Leech "Downton Abbey", Joe Pesci "The Irishman", Harvey Keitel "The Irishman", Jesse Plemmons "The Irishman", Bobby Cannavale "The Irishman", Jack Huston "The Irishman", Ray Romano "The Irishman", Matthew Rhys "A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood", Chris Cooper "A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood", Joe Alwyn "Harriet", Clarke Peters "Harriet", Leslie Odom Jr. "Harriet", Damian Lewis "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood", Timothy Olyphant "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood", Al Pacino "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood", Jamie Bell "Rocketman", Richard Madden "Rocketman", Ian McKellen "Cats", Idris Elba "Cats", James Corden "Cats", Ray Winstone "Cats", Robert Fairchild "Cats", Jon Hamm "Lucy in the Sky", Jonathan Pryce "The Pope", Bill Pullman "Untitled Todd Hayes Project", Tim Robbins "Untitled Todd Hayes Project", Bill Camp "Untitled Todd Hayes Project", William Jackson Harper "Untitled Todd Hayes Project", Ansel Elgort "The Goldfinch", JeffreyWright "The Goldfinch", Luke Wilson "The Goldfinch", Denis O'Hare "The Goldfinch", Ben Mendelsohn "The King", Bruce Willis "Motherless Brooklyn", Robert Pattinson "The Lighthouse", Wendell Pierce "Clemency", Richard Schiff "Clemency", Aldis Hodge "Clemency", Jonathan Majors ""The Last Black Man in San Francisco", Danny Glover "The Last Black Man in San Francisco", John Lithgow "Untitled Roger Ailes Project", Malcolm McDowell "Untitled Roger Ailes Project", Gary Oldman "The Woman in the Window", Bokeem Woodbine "Queen & Slim", Andre Benjamin "High Life", Billy Crudup "Where'd You Go Bernadette?", Mark Strong "1917", Richard Madden "1917", Benedict Cumberbatch "1917", George MacKay "1917", Andrew Scott "1917", Dean-Charles Chapman "1917"

Commentary - Like the Supporting Actress race, a lot of ensemble pieces offer multiple contenders, making for a hard process of narrowing it down. Let's start with my current five. I think that despite their large casts, several contenders will rise to the top. Al Pacino looks to be the best bet for The Irishman, although the Mark Wahlberg nomination for The Departed is definitely in the back of my mind. Brad Pitt definitely gets the most time in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (presuming Leo's the lead, this could end up being a similar jockeying to Foxx/Waltz in Django). I also know how much Emmy voters loved Jim Carter in Downton Abbey. If Oscar voters feel the same, he could take a slot. Finally, the last two slots are going to recent contenders. Willem Dafoe managed a surprise nod for At Eternity's Gate, and if he can get three nominations in a row, Oscar voters might finally give him a prize. Finally, Timothee Chalamet barely missed last year for a so-so movie. This year, teaming up with Greta Gerwig, and a cast for days, he might be able to make the cut again. Now, the ensembles. The rests of the supporting casts of Downton Abbey, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and The Irishman could all be in themix. Then there are the casts for Harriet, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, 1917, the Untitled Todd Haynes Project, Untitled Roger Ailes Project, Cats, The The Goldfinch, Clemency, and The Last Black Man in San Francisco, all of whom have plenty of names that could entice voters. There are plenty of stand alone contenders like Jon Hamm, Ben Mendelsohn, Bokeem Woodbine, Andre Benjamin, Gary Oldman, Bruce Willis and Robert Pattinson as well. This will be an interesting race to the finish.