The Oscar Narrative: Pre-Guild Nomination Predictions - Best Supporting Actor

Pre-Guild Nomination Predictions
Willem Dafoe "The Florida Project"
Woody Harrelson "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
Armie Hammer "Call Me By Your Name"
Richard Jenkins "The Shape of Water"
Sam Rockwell "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"

Other Contenders - Christopher Plummer "All the Money in the World", Steve Carell "Battle of the Sexes", Michael Stuhlbarg "Call Me My Your Name", Ray Romano "The Big Sick"

Commentary - I really hope BAFTA helps us sort this out a bit, because right now it feels like this race really is in flux. Willem Dafoe, Sam Rockwell, and Richard Jenkins are the only contenders right now with the trifecta of BFCA, Golden Globe, and SAG. They feel like locks for the nomination, and I think the Oscar comes down to Dafoe and Rockwell. Most folks think Dafoe is a shoo-in, but I still wonder if The Florida Project will have enough broad support to really make as much of an Oscar impact as people think it will, and Rockwell has the bolder performance in a film that is clearly going to be a bigger overall success with voters. The last two slots I am splitting between Globe/BFCA and SAG. I think Michael Stuhlbarg is out after missing the Globe and SAG, and despite that shocking SAG nod and his expected lead nomination at the Globes, I really don't see Steve Carell taking that final slot. I think Woody Harrelson's SAG Nomination was indicative of the broad support Three Billboards has across the acting community, and he is a beloved veteran in this industry. I also think, despite the SAG snub, that Armie Hammer will get in here. Reports from the ground say that he is working rooms, and is everywhere this season. We have seen a lot of folks benefit from that kind of exposure at the finish line, and a BAFTA nod will seal the deal for me. I also think that none of us should discount Christopher Plummer. All the Money in the World is getting good reviews, particularly for Plummer and Williams, and this would send a powerful signal from Hollywood that those in the industry who use their power and influence to sexually intimidate their peers will not only face the wrath of the press and industry, but can easily be replaced by better people. Don't be surprised if his name is called nomination morning.