The Oscar Narrative: Pre-Guild Nomination Predictions - Best Adapted Screenplay

Pre-Guild Nomination Predictions
James Ivory "Call Me By Your Name"
Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber "The Disaster Artist"
Aaron Sorkin "Molly's Game"
Dee Rees and Virgil Williams "Mudbound"
Stephen Chbosky, Steve Conrad, and Jack Throne "Wonder"

Other Contenders - Lee Hall "Victoria and Abdul", Brian Selznick "Wonderstruck", David Scarpa "All the Money in the World", Sofia Coppola "The Beguiled", Matt Greenhalgh "Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool", Allan Heinberg, Zack Snyder, and Jason Fuchs "Wonder Woman", James Mangold, Scott Frank, and Michael Green "Logan", Mark Bomback and Matt Reeves "War for the Planet of the Apes", Rian Johnson "Star Wars: The Last Jedi"

Other Contenders - In an especially weak year for this category, there are four solid contenders, and a fifth slot that is open to a world of possibilities. Call Me By Your Name has suffered some setbacks lately at the Globes and SAG, but this category's nomination feels like lock, as does Mudbound, who remains a vital contender, if not still on the outside looking in. Plus, this is a way to honor Dee Rees. Aaron Sorkin's miss for Steve Jobs still stings. Even though Molly's Game is really only a contender in two categories, this feels like an easy nod for the film, and it hopefully makes up for that horrendous snub. Finally, The Disaster Artist is not getting a Best Picture nod, but for a film about a terrible film, two nominations (or least it looks like two nominations), feels like a huge accomplishment. Plus the dynamic duo of Neustatder and Weber who have been flirting with Oscar glory for years with (500) Days of Summer, The Fault in Our Stars, and The Spectacular Now, should finally enter the fray. For the final slot, I am currently predicting the Critics Choice nod of Wonder, because nothing else has gotten a big nomination yet. Victoria and Abdul could get in, but the writers prefer quirkier choices and a mediocre period piece doesn't seem up their alley. They could got for the quirkier choices of Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool or Wonderstruck, or reward a familiar face in Sofia Coppola, even though most folks have forgotten The Beguiled is in this race. All the Money in the World is fighting to get back into the Oscar race, using its re-shoot with Christopher Plummer as a badge of honor. This might be the category it can actually sneak into, although not the one most folks expect. All of this being said, what might actually happen is that this branch finally embraces the blockbuster, something it has ignored in the past. Logan, Star Wars, War for the Planet of the Apes, and Wonder Woman proved that big blockbusters can also be great movies, and maybe its time for one of them to finally get some overdue recognition.