The Oscar Narrative: Post 2025 Venice/Telluride/Toronto Nomination Predictions - Best Adapted and Original Screenplay

Best Adapted Screenplay

Peter Straughn "Conclave"

Jacques Audiard "Emilia Perez"

RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes "The Nickel Boys"

Virgil Williams and Malcolm Washington "The Piano Lesson"

Pedro Almodovar "The Room Next Door"

Other Contenders - Jay Cocks and James Mangold "A Complete Unknown", Justin Kuritzkes "Queer", Meg LeFauve, Dave Holstein, and Kelsey Mann "Inside Out 2", Denis Villeneuve and Jon Spaihts "Dune Part II", David Scarpa and Peter Craig "Gladiator II", Murilo Hauser and Heitor Lorega "I'm Still Here", Chris Sanders "The Wild Robot", Richard Linklater and Glen Powell "Hit Man", Robert Eggers "Nosferatu", Eric Roth and Robert Zemeckis "Here", Zach Baylin "The Order", Barry Jenkins "The Fire Inside"

Commentary - Conclave, The Nickel Boys, Emilia Perez, The Piano Lesson , and The Room Next Door all came sprinting out of the fall festivals with a lot of buzz and awards potential. Beyond those five, Queer also did well out of the circuit, Hit Man was a fun spring hit, and we are waiting to see if Nosferatu, as well as projects from previous nominees Baylin, Jenkins, and Roth/Zemeckis are potent. Also look out for The Wild Robot, and the big sequels, Gladiator II, Inside Out 2, and Dune Part II. 

Best Original Screenplay

Sean Baker "Anora"

Steve McQueen "Blitz"

Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold "The Brutalist"

Mike Leigh "Hard Truths"

Gil Kenan and Jason Reitman "Saturday Night"

Other Contenders - Moritz Binder and Tim Fehlbaum "September 5", Jesse Eisenberg "A Real Pain", Mohammad Rasoulof "The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Azazel Jacobs "His Three Daughters", Payal Kapadia "All We Imagine as Light", Steven Knight "Maria",  Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthimis Filippou "Kinds of Kindness",  Justin Kuritzkes "Challengers", Josh Margolin "Thelma" 

Commentary - Anora continues its buzz and The Brutalist is the surprise hit of the season. Mike Leigh's Hard Truths needs more buzz, but he is always a surprise favorite with Oscar voters. Blitz may not be as unique as previous McQueen works, but it is a well-received historical drama from an Oscar winner. Finally, despite mixed reviews, I think Saturday Night could be the crowd-pleasing favorite that voters respond to this season. September 5 is a real contender to watch, The Seed of the Sacred Fig has buzz, and His Three Daughters, Maria, and All We Imagine is Light are dark horse contenders. Also watch out for early contenders Thelma, Kinds of Kindness, and Challengers.