Is Lee Daniel's The Butler an Oscar Contender?

Tomorrow afternoon I will see Lee Daniel's The Butler, a movie that has been getting a lot of press, mostly positive over the last week. I always thought that with its cast, and its Weinstein connection, that it would play well during the Oscar season. It has the historical factor, and is apparently an emotional heart-tugger, both of which are right down the Academy's alley. I was concerned though about critical reception. While a positive critical score is not neccessarily essential to be an Oscar-nominated film, it does go a long way to building on buzz and with the theatrical release. It was semi-decent reviews, I think, that helped The Help stay an Oscar contender two years ago, and not fall from grace after release. If the reviews had been less-than-stellar it may not have made the cut. It had the great cast, the great historical presence, and a major studio behind it, which all combined for both box office success and Oscar nominations, including one for Best Picture. It had a 77% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 62 on Metacritic. Just decent enough to not kill the film's hopes. This time around The Butler is sitting at a 73% on Rotten Tomatoes, and a 66 on Metacritic, both of which are very similar to The Help. The last remaining question is whether it will do well at the box office. Well as of Friday, it was leading the weekend, on track for $25 million opening. It also had an excellent A Cinemascore rating which will most likely ensure steady buisness over the next couple of weeks (which are usually thin in terms of box office), and it could easily cross the $100 million mark by the time Oscar season kicks into full gear. I will wait till tomorrow to really stake a claim as to whether these pieces will combine together for Oscar success. But I will say that right now the stars are definitely aligning for this project, and at the least, some of its components, most likely being Forest Whitaker, Oprah Winfrey, Makeup, Costume Design, and some other techs, are definitely not out of the question. As always, we'll have to wait and see...