The Oscar Narrative: First 2014 Predictions - Best Actor

First 2014 Predictions
George Clooney "The Monuments Men"
Leonardo DiCaprio "The Wolf of Wall Street"
Idris Elba "Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom"
Tom Hanks "Saving Mr. Banks"
Matthew McConaughey "Dallas Buyers Club"

Other Contenders - Tom Hanks "Captain Phillips",  Christian Bale "Untitled David O. Russell/Abscam Project", Forest Whitaker "The Butler", Chiwetel Ejiofor "Twelve Years a Slave", Bruce Dern "Nebraska", Steve Carell "Foxcatcher", Josh Brolin "Labor Day", Josh Brolin "Oldboy", Michael B. Jordan "Fruitvale", Michael Fassbender "The Counselor", Miles Teller "The Spectacular Now", Hugh Jackman "Prisoners", Joaquin Phoenix "Her", Oscar Isaac "Inside Llewelyn Davis", Ethan Hawke "Before Midnight", Dennis Quaid "At Any Price", Casey Affleck "Ain't Them Bodies Saints", Colin Firth "The Railway Man", Ryan Gosling "Only God Forgives", Philip Seymour Hoffman "A Most Wanted Man", Leonardo DiCaprio "The Great Gatsby", Ben Affleck "Runner, Runner", Michael Shannon "The Iceman", Forest Whitaker "Black Nativity", Bradley Cooper "Serena", Bradley Cooper "Untitled David O. Russell/Abscam Project", Antonio Bandaras "33 Dias", James McAvoy "The Disappearence of Eleanor Rigby: Hers", Jeremy Renner "Lowlife", Benedict Cumberbatch "The Fifth Estate"

Commentary - A lot of big contenders this year, and as always, some of these could end up in supporting or vice versa. Probably the biggest name is Leonardo DiCaprio, after years of essentially being ignored by Academy voters (I mean three nominations is great, but when you consider his body of work, it is slim pickins') he has two high profile films this year. Gatsby will probably bomb (just a hunch), but his fall film with Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street, looks intriguing, and could finally be his ticket to an Oscar, or at least a fourth nomination. Two previous Oscar winners are looking to return. The first is the ever popular George Clooney, whose Monuments Men (along with Gravity), could net him a nice new haul of Oscar nominations, including a Best Actor one. Tom Hanks looks to return to the race after a long absense, but voters will have to sort out which role they prefer more. The role of Captain Phillips dealing with Somai pirates looks to be the most challenging, but if he nails Walt Disney in Saving Mr. Banks, that may end up being the Academy's favorite. Finally, two veteran actors look to crack the Oscar landscape with two baity projects. Last year, Matthew McConaughey surely got some votes for Magic Mike. This year, with Mud, and this film, as well as his role in Wolf of Wall Street, he is going to have a great year with lots of solid projects and buzz. My guess is that that translates into his first Oscar nomination. The last one could go either way, not because of the actor, but because biopics can be tricky. Idris Elba is a great actor who could have found the role to boost him into his first Oscar race. Playing Nelson Mandela is baity enough, but with Harvey Weinstein behind him, this role could be a tough one to beat.