The Oscar Narrative: First 2014 Predictions - Best Supporting Actor

First 2014 Predictions
George Clooney "Gravity"
Matt Damon "The Monuments Men"
John Goodman "Inside Llewelyn Davis"
Philip Seymour Hoffman "A Most Wanted Man"
Tommy Lee Jones "Malavita"

Other Contenders - Josh Brolin "Labor Day", Daniel Craig "The Monuments Men", Michael Fassbender "The Counselor", Michael Fassbender "Twelve Years a Slave", Jean Dujardin "The Monuments Men", Matthew McConaughey "The Wolf of Wall Street", Woody Harrelson "Out of the Furnace", Ewan McGregor "August: Osage County", William Defoe "A Most Wanted Man", Dane DeHaan "Kill Your Darlings", Terrence Howard "The Butler", John Cusack "The Butler", Mark Ruffalo "Foxcatcher", Tobey Maguire "The Great Gatsby", Chris O'Dowd "The Sapphires", Ed Harris "Look of Love", Alec Baldwin "Blue Jasmin", Colin Farrell "Saving Mr. Banks", Sam Rockwell "The Way, Way Back", Tim Roth "Grace of Monaco", Justin Timberlake "Inside Llewelyn Davis", Douglas Hodge "Grace of Monaco", Will Forte "Nebraska", Bob Odenkirk "Nebraska", Vincent Cassel "Trance", Johnny Depp "The Lone Ranger", Toby Jones "Serena", Paul Giamatti "Almost Christmas", Jake Gyllenhaal "Prisoners", Casey Affleck "Aint Them Bodies Saints", Daniel Bruhl "The Fifth Estate"

Commentary - Last year I got zero predictions right from first predictions to final ones. Of course that is not necessarily unusual, although I did get three out of five Best Supporting Actress nominees. So this year, I am plenty prepared to be totally off. As with most early predictions, you have to play it safe, and go based on the level of bait of each product and the history of each contender. So first, I will say that George Clooney could have a repeat of 2005, where he is nominated across the board for two different movies. Gravity, which also stars Oscar winner Sandra Bullock, is a buzzed project, but may have to work hard to overcome its sci-fi trappings, and the fact that it is a two-actor show. Also while most pundits are placing Clooney in Supporting, he will probably be pushed into lead, depending on what happens with Monuments Men. Speaking of, there are lots of names including Jean Dujardin, John Goodman, and Daniel Craig that could garner votes from the film. But right now, I am guessing that the criminally underrewarded Matt Damon (Only two acting nods in his career), is the more likely of the group Last year was a great year for John Goodman, but he wasn't able to push through to his first Oscar nomination. This year, he once again faces the challenge of having two big projects, both of which could cancel each other out. But I think that he will find more luck with the Coen Bros' latest Inside Llewelyn Davis, where there is not as much internal competition. In the final slots, I am bringing back two contenders from last year. We see a lot where Oscar buzz from a previous season can lead to a quick follow up nomination. Hoffman in a political thriller and Jones as a part of a mafia family both sound like great roles that fit each of their acting styles.