State of the Oscar Race - November Predictions: Best Actor

November Predictions
Daniel Day-Lewis "Lincoln"
John Hawkes "The Sessions"
Hugh Jackman "Les Miserables"
Joaquin Phoenix "The Master"
Denzel Washington "Flight"

Other Contenders - Bradley Cooper "Silver Linings Playbook", Anthony Hopkins "Hitchcock", Christoph Waltz "Django Unchained", Suraj Sharma "Life of Pi", Richard Gere "Arbitrage", Jamie Foxx "Django Unchained", Ben Affleck "Argo", Jean Louis-Trintignant "Amour"

Commentary - The four that seem to be the frontrunners still hold their positions heading into December. Daniel Day-Lewis is a force to be reckoned with in Lincoln, and I honestly don't think there is anyone at the moment that can beat him. Unless the precursors suddenly back say a John Hawkes or a Joaquin Phoenix, I think that Day-Lewis will be the one to beat. While The Sessions as a whole may not make too big of a mark, both Hawkes and Hunt remain very much in both of their respective races. As does Joaquin Phoenix, although if The Master continues to slip, and Phoenix continues to run his mouth, I think that voters may not be so kind to him and he could be the one that surprisingly gets left out come nomination morning. Flight continues to garner buzz, and I think that the film could be a Best Picture contender, and if not, then Denzel still has a slot waiting for it. The final slot is kind of tricky. Bradley Cooper has yet to make my top five this season, and I am starting to wonder if he has enough backing to do so. Weinstein's presence helps, as does the film's Best Picture buzz. But I still think that this race is so stacked that he is going to have to bump someone big (which may be Weinstein's other big guy Phoenix). Anthony Hopkins gets bumped out as Hitchcock's buzz seems to have come and gone very quickly, but an Oscar winner playing a legendary director, in a movie about movies might be hard to pass up, especially for the older Academy crowd. So instead, I am going with Hugh Jackman. I will post very soon about the recent screenings of Les Miserables and Zero Dark Thirty (once I get a bit more consensus), but word so far is that Les Mis is a hit, and that Jackman and Hathaway are its standouts. And since it is such a big ensemble, I think that actors will like it enough to get in several of its cast members, especially Jackman.