State of the Race: November Oscar Predictions - Best Supporting Actor

November Predictions
Alan Arkin "Argo"
Robert DeNiro "Silver Linings Playbook"
Leonardo DiCaprio "Django Unchained"
Philip Seymour Hoffman "The Master"
Tommy Lee Jones "Lincoln"

Other Contenders - John Goodman "Flight", John Goodman "Argo", Dwight Henry "Beasts of the Southern Wild", Russell Crowe "Les Miserables", Javier Bardem "Skyfall", Samuel L. Jackson "Django Unchained", Bryan Cranston "Argo", Matthew McConaughey "Magic Mike", William H. Macy "The Sessions", Michael Pena "End of Watch", Ewan McGregor "The Impossible", Tom Holland "The Impossible", Jim Broadbent "Cloud Atlas"

Commentary - This race is filled with so many big names that it seems to good to be true. First and foremost at the moment is Academy Award winner Tommy Lee Jones, who has quietly delivered two of the best performances of the year. The first in, what is sure to be a Golden Globe nominated performance, Hope Springs, and then this brilliant turn as Thaddeus Stevens. But not far behind him is the bravura performance from Philip Seymour Hoffman in The Master. He is a co-lead rather than supporting, which definitely helps, but the film continues to slip as the season goes on, so while I still think a nomination is a lock, a win is not so certain. Two old-school legendary actors both deliver great performances, Alan Arkin and Robert DeNiro in Argo and Silver Linings Playbook respectively. Both are Academy favorites in Best Picture favorites, and unless an unseen contender springs up and steals thunder, consider them both in. Now the fifth slot to me is a little tricky. John Goodman should get in for at least one of his roles this year, but vote splitting may hurt him. Hopefully some precursors get behind one film and push him into the race. Dwight Henry is still a possible, but Beasts of the Southern Wild needs a Indie Spirit/critics boost if it wants to get anything outside of Quvenzhane Wallis. Les Miserables just screened, but Crowe has yet to be named as a standout, but if he is, then expect him to do well on the circuit. Javier Bardem is deliciously evil in Skyfall (a review will be posted soon), but the film needs to defy expectations on the circuit, and challenge 50 years of ignoring Bond films to break through in non-technical categories. So where am I going for slot number five? In house reviews say the Leonardo Dicaprio (and Sam Jackson) are awesome in Django Unchained. If the film doesn't hold up, then someone else takes the slot, but for now I am holding on with DiCaprio, who is overdue for an Oscar win.