Jamie Bell "Half Man"
Charlie Hunnam "Monster: The Ed Gein Story"
Paul Anthony Kelly "Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. & Carolyn Bessette"
Oscar Isaac "Beef"
Matthew Rhys "The Beast In Me"
Other Contenders - Riz Ahmed "Bait", Jason Bateman "Black Rabbit", Lewis Pullman "Remarkably Bright Creatures", Michael Shannon "Death By Lightning", Tom Blyth "People We Meet on Vacation", Jude Law "Black Rabbit", Matthew Macfayden "Death by Lightning", Mitchell Roberston "Half Man"
Commentary - Oscar Isaac is a lock, with Beef's second outing looking to lead the way in a weak field. I would also count in Emmy-winner Matthew Rhys, for the well-received The Beast In Me. Half Man is not as well-received as Baby Reindeer, but I think a lot of goodwill and decent reviews will carry it to Emmy success. So consider Jamie Bell in. The last two slots I am going with big roles in not great series, Paul Anthony Kelly and Charlie Hunnam. But, if voters realize that neither Ryan Murphy series is really that great, then look for big names like Riz Ahmed, Jason Bateman, Lewis Pullman, Michael Shannon, Jude Law, and Emmy winner Matthew Macfayden. Also watch for Tom Blyth and Mitchell Robertson to join his co-star.
Best Actress in a Limited Series/TV Movie
Claire Danes "The Beast In Me"
Sally Field "Remarkably Bright Creatures"
Carey Mulligan "Beef"
Sarah Pigeon "Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. & Carolyn Bessette"
Sarah Snook "All Her Fault"
Other Contenders - Kerry Washington "Imperfect Women", Tessa Thompson "His and Hers", Robin Wright "The Girlfriend", Allison Janney "Miss You Love You", Patricia Arquette "Murdaugh: Death in the Family", Rachel Weisz "Vladimir"
Commentary - Claire Danes and Sarah Snook both are previous winners and did well on the Fall circuit. Beef is going to do very well, and Oscar-nominee Carey Mulligan could easily win here. Despite mixed reviews, I still believe in the Emmy power of Sally Field, and I think that Sarah Pigeon will make the cut for her role in Love Story, which will overcome mixed reactions to Emmy nomination glory. But, this race is in flux. Watch out for Emmy winners/nominees like Kerry Washington, Robin Right, Patricia Arquette, and big names like Rachel Weisz and Tessa Thompson.
Best Supporting Actor in a Limited Series/TV Movie
Jason Bateman "DTF St. Louis"
Richard Gadd "Half Man"
David Harbour "DTF St. Louis"
Charles Melton "Beef"
Alessandro Nivola "Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. & Carolyn Bessette"
Other Contenders - Jonathan Banks "The Beast In Me", Jake Lacy "All Her Fault", Troy Kotsur "Black Rabbit", Nick Offerman "Death By Lightning", Stuart Campbell "Half Man", Tom Hollander "Monster: The Ed Gein Story", Richard Jenkins "DTF St. Louis", Michael Pena "All Her Fault", Bradley Whitford "Death By Lightning"
Commentary - This race has a lot of potential for upsets. I feel good about Charles Melton and Richard Gadd, but otherwise it can go many ways. Previous winners/nominees Jason Bateman and David Harbour could be wildcards, but I am betting on popularity. Love Story seems to be doing well in the odds, so I am including Alessandro Nivola. But I am on the lookout for Banks, Lacy, Kotsur, Offerman, Campell, Hollander, Jenkins, Pena, and Whitford. All are big names, lots of recognition amongst the bunch, and it could end up looking like a very different final six than predicted.
Best Supporting Actress in a Limited Series/TV Movie
Linda Cardellini "DTF St. Louis"
Dakota Fanning "All Her Fault"
Laurie Metcalf "Monster: The Ed Gein Story"
Cailee Spaeny "Beef"
Naomi Watts "Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. & Carolyn Bessette"
Yuh-Jung Youn "Beef"
Other Contenders - Grace Gummer "Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. & Carolyn Bessette", Constance Zimmer "Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. & Carolyn Bessette", Brittany Snow "The Beast in Me", Betty Gilpin "Death By Lightning", Lesley Manville "Monster: The Ed Gein Story", Teyana Taylor "Straw", Sophia Lillis "All Her Fault", Elisabeth Moss "Imperfect Women",
Commentary - YJ! You all know my love for YJ, and I think she and her co-star Cailee Spaeny are going to easily make the cut. After that, I am banking on the names and performances of Dakota Fanning, Naomi Watts, and Laurie Metcalf. But I would also not be shocked by Gummer, Zimmer, Snow, Gilpin, Manville, Taylor, Lillis, or Moss. Again, another race in flux that really depends of voters tastes.
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