Will Win - Ludwig Goransson "Sinners"
Could Win - Jonny Greenwood "One Battle After Another"
Should Win - Jonny Greenwood "One Battle After Another"
Commentary - As always, there are so few precursors that lineup, but the ones that do, all lined up behind another Ludwig Goransson win for Sinners. For my money, Jonny Greenwood is underappreciated this season for his genre-bending work in One Battle After Another.
Best Original Song
Will Win - EJAE, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seo and Teddy Park "Golden" from "KPop Demon Hunters"
Could Win - Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig Goransson "I Lied to You" From "Sinners"
Should Win - Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner "Train Dreams" from "Train Dreams"
Commentary - This is one of those categories that will test the strength of Sinners. Every major precursor has gone to Golden, the smash hit from KPop Demon Hunters. But if voters are really into Sinners, then I Lied to You could sneak in for the win.
Best Sound
Will Win - F1
Could Win - Sinners, One Battle After Another, Sirat
Should Win - Sirat
Commentary - F1 won CAS and BAFTA, which makes me think its winning here, and it is the most sound of the bunch. Sirat would be the inspired choice, and if either Sinners or One Battle win here, it is a cue to the strength of the films overall.
Best Visual Effects
Will Win - Avatar: Fire and Ash
Could Win - F1 or Sinners
Should Win - Avatar: Fire and Ash
Commentary - The obvious choice often loses to a Best Picture nominee. So while I think Fire and Ash is the obvious choice, its Oscar fortunes have diminished, which opens the race up to either Sinners or F1 to surprise.
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