The Oscar Narrative: Post 2025 Venice/Telluride/Toronto Nomination Predictions - Best Supporting Actor

The Oscar Narrative: Post 2025 Venice/Telluride/Toronto Nomination Predictions

Kieran Culkin "A Real Pain" 

Edward Norton "A Complete Unknown" 

Guy Pearce "The Brutalist"

Stanley Tucci "Conclave" 

Denzel Washington "Gladiator II"

Other Contenders - Clarence Maclin "Sing Sing", John Turturro "The Room Next Door", Samuel L. Jackson "The Piano Lesson", John Magaro "September 5", Peters Saarsgard "September 5", Drew Starkey "Queer", John Lithgow "Conclave", Yury Borisov "Anora", Austin Butler "Dune Part II", Lamore Morris "Saturday Night", Harris Dickinson "Blitz", Jonathan Bailey "Wicked", Selton Mello "I'm Still Here", Brian Tyree Henry "The Fire Inside", Josh O'Connor "Challengers", Mike Faist "Challengers", Mark Eydelshteyn "Anora", Tommy Dewey "Saturday Night", Pedro Pascal "Gladiator II", Tom Hardy "The Bikeriders", Richard Roundtree "Thelma", Cooper Hoffman "Saturday Night", Nicholas Braun "Saturday Night"

Commentary - Guy Pearce has emerged as a huge contender here for The Brutalist, which skyrocketed to the top of the Oscar heap after the fall festivals. But almost every pundit still has Denzel Washington for Gladiator II at the top of the list. Is it because word on the street is he is great? Or is it just, don't bet against Denzel? Either way, I am joining the majority. Conclave is going to be a big hit with voters, and Stanley Tucci looks like the Supporting contender to watch for. Edward Norton is getting a bunch of buzz for A Complete Unknown and Kieran Culkin is an early favorite for A Real Pain. Beyond those five, watch for Clarence Maclin in a buzzed performance, John Turturro tackling Almodovar, Samuel L. Jackson, and the many guys from Saturday Night, led by recent Emmy winner Lamore Morris. September 5 offers Magaro and Saarsgard, Drew Starkey could emerge, as could Yury Borisov and Harris Dickinson. Also watch out for previous nominees and winner like Brian Tyree Henry, Austin Butler, John Lithgow, and Tomy Hardy. Throw in potential first timers Jonathan Bailey, Josh O'Connor, Mike Faist, Mark Eydelshteyn, Pedro Pascal, and the late, great Richard Roundtree, and you have a race!