Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win - Taika Waititi "Jojo Rabbit"
Could Win - Greta Gerwig "Little Women"
Should Win - Steve Zaillian "The Irishman"
Commentary - My, how this category has changed rapidly over the course of 48 hours. Almost everyone was predicting Greta Gerwig to avenge her Director snub and take home a consolation prize. But then Jojo Rabbit won the WGA and the BAFTA, both had Gerwig in their nominations. I think she still has a chance, and Zaillian should be in contention, this looks like it is Taika Waititi's lose.
Best Original Screenplay
Will Win - Bong Joon Ho and Han Jin Won "Parasite"
Could Win - Quentin Tarantino "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood"
Should Win - Quentin Tarantino "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood"
Commentary - Once again, this race has flipped so suddenly. Parasite wins at BAFTA and WGA. To be fair, Tarantino was not on the WGA ballot due to ineligibility. That's why I think this race is closer than we think. BAFTA is a good precursor, but American voters only had Parasite, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is a film that I think plays better with American Academy voter than British ones. So I am picking Parasite, because, I have a bigger prediction for it later on, and because it has the stats. But don't be shocked to hear Tarantino's name once again.
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