Pre-Guild Predictions
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
The Favourite
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma
A Star is Born
Vice
Other Contenders - Bohemian Rhapsody, First Man, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Cold War, Eighth Grade, Crazy Rich Asians, A Quiet Place, First Reformed, Leave No Trace
Commentary - I honestly think that this race is down to eleven for probably nine slots. On the outside I have Bohemian Rhapsody and First Man. Bohemian Rhapsody got the SAG Ensemble, Golden Globe, and if it gets the PGA nod tomorrow is a real force to be reckoned with. It's just not that great of a film (outside Rami Malek), and it will need that nostalgia vote to get enough number one slots. First Man is one that most people have written off, but the BFCA love shows it can do well in a broad group. Remember, it will do well in a lot of the craft categories, and could still surprise. Other than that I have the nine I am currently predicting. Roma, A Star is Born, BlacKkKlansman, Green Book, and The Favourite all seem locked and loaded. I also think that Black Panther's stock is continuing to rise to the point that it seems like it is getting safe. Vice and Mary Poppins Returns are late entries with mixed reviews, but I feel like there is a lot of support for both. Finally, If Beale Street Could Talk, while not as strong as I thought it would be, is a film that inspires passion and love. That helps when it comes to the nomination phase. I feel like there are enough votes for it to make the cut.
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