The Oscar Narrative: Final Nomination Predictions - Best Picture

Final Nomination Predictions
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star is Born
Vice

Other Contenders - If Beale Street Could Talk, First Man, Crazy Rich Asians, A Quiet Place, Mary Poppins Returns, Cold War, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Eighth Grade

Commentary - As we know the "somewhere between five and ten" has landed us with either 8 or 9 contenders. This year I am going with eight, because I cannot decide which film would be a ninth place, which is usually a sign that there isn't a ninth place to be had. A Star is Born, BlacKkKlansman, Green Book and Roma feel like safe bets based on guild, Globe, and BAFTA support. A lot of folks are doubting Vice, but it continues to be a favorite among this industry, with PGA, DGA, WGA, ACE Eddie, Globe, and other support across the guilds. Those are the DGA five, and those feel like safe bets. The Favourite is the BAFTA favorite this year, pun intended, and has done well at other major guilds. Bohemian Rhapsody has defied its critics with a Globe Best Picture win, SAG, PGA, and major BAFTA nominations, as well as support from the crafts guilds. Finally, I think Black Panther, while not the slam dunk nominee many assumed, still did well enough across the industry to make the cut. Plus, with Black Panther, A Star is Born, and Bohemian Rhapsody, the Oscars will avoid the claim that they ignore blockbusters. So that ninth slot is where I'm not sure. A lot of folks still think If Beale Street Could Talk is in, but its guild support is muted. First Man has done really well with the crafts guilds, and should rack up a lot of nominations, but I expect it to end up like Blade Runner 2049 last year, where those guilds are not enough to push it into the Best Picture race. Crazy Rich Asians has done extremely well, but I don't think it can get any other nomination. In this expanded race, the lowest nomination tally for a Best Picture nomination was two. So unless Michelle Yeoh is stronger than we thought, I don't think there is enough support. A Quiet Place was hoping to be this year's Get Out, and with a PGA and WGA nomination, it is in the mix. Finally, the likes of Cold War, Mary Poppins Returns, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, and Eighth Grade are still hoping some passion votes from Academy members carries them into the race.