The Oscar Narrative: Final Nomination Predictions - Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, and Visual Effects

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Darkest Hour
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Wonder

Other Contenders - I, Tonya, Ghost in the Shell, Bright

Commentary - This is a category that is almost always a crap shoot. I think that Darkest Hour, with the heavy Churchill makeup, and period hairstyling, will be the front runner here. But, in my mind, there are three other films for two slots. Wonder has the transformation of Jacob Tremblay, and Guardians of the Galaxy has extensive makeup work that earned Vol. 1 an Oscar nomination. But watch out for I, Tonya. It has great period work, and has been a dark horse contender all year across the board.

Best Sound Mixing
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Other Contenders - Wonder Woman, War for the Planet of the Apes, Beauty and the Beast, The Greatest Showman, Coco, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Get Out, The Post

Commentary - Four of the contenders hit both the BAFTA sound category (a mixed category) and the CAS Nominations: Dunkirk, Shape of Water, Baby Driver, and Star Wars. I think all of these will make the Oscar cut. But CAS has not matched 5/5 since 2003, and in recent years, even sometimes two of the nominees don't cross over. So I don't think they will match 5/5, although a fifth slot for Wonder Woman at the CAS is not a bad pick, neither is the BAFTA fifth slot of Blade Runner 2049. I think that Blade Runner will over-perform at the Oscars the way it did at BAFTA, and yes that means that Denis Villeneuve could also pop up in director. I think that the folks in the craft categories will love this film, even if audiences did not, and will get a bunch of below the line nods, including this one. Beyond those six, blockbusters like War for the Planet of the Apes, Guardians of the Galaxy, and Coco are potent threats, as are the two musicals, Beauty and the Beast and The Greatest Showman. Sound mixing and musicals have always equaled Oscar gold.

Best Sound Editing
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Other Contenders - Wonder Woman, War for the Planet of the Apes, Beauty and the Beast, The Greatest Showman, Coco, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Get Out, The Post

Commentary - With no musical front runner, and no guild yet to help us guide the way (MPSE Nods come out day before Oscar nods, so the final list may get switched around a bit depending on those results), I am sticking with the same five. Usually, these two categories are pretty close, and this year, the five films really do excel in both categories.

Best Visual Effects
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes

Other Contenders - Okja, Alien: Covenant, Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Kong: Skull Island

Commentary - This category always drives me crazy, because it is unpredictable. Like I will not be surprised if Okja or Valerian make the cut here, even though they are not big Oscar films. But I am sticking with the five best films of the bake-off, that also happen to have excellent special effects. But watch out, my guess is one of these misses out.