The Oscar Narrative: Post-Festival Predictions - Best Actor

Post-Festival Predictions
Timothee Chalamet "Call Me By Your Name"
Daniel Day-Lewis "Phantom Thread"
Jake Gyllenhaal "Stronger"
Hugh Jackman "The Greatest Showman"
Gary Oldman "Darkest Hour"

Other Contenders - Tom Hanks "The Post", Andrew Garfield "Breathe", James Franco "The Disaster Artist", Jeremy Renner "Wind River", Daniel Kaluuya "Get Out", Sam Elliott "The Hero", Steve Carell "Battle of the Sexes", Steve Carell "The Last Flag Flying", Denzel Washington "Roman J. Israel, Esq", Kumail Nanjiani "The Big Sick", Christian Bale "Hostiles", Ryan Gosling "Blade Runner 2049", Chadwick Boseman "Marshall", Hugh Jackman "Logan", Miles Teller "Thank You For Your Service", James McAvoy "Split", Matt Damon "Downsizing", Kevin Spacey "All the Money in the World", Javier Barden "mother!", Robert Redford "Our Souls at Night", Kenneth Branagh "Murder on the Orient Express", Robert Pattinson "Good Time", Joel Edgerton "It Comes At Night", Tom Cruise "American Made", John Boyega "Detroit", Adam Sandler "The Meyerowitz Stories", Donald Sutherland "The Leisure Seeker"

Commentary - After the fests, one name stands out among the pack. Of course I am speaking of Gary Oldman. He has everything going for him: overdue status, brilliant performance, biopic, film with overall Oscar potential. Can something unseat him? Of course! It is only mid-October and the next three months or so could change a lot. But Oldman feels like one of those inevitable contenders, and so far, it looks like everyone is happy to go along for the ride. A surprise contender is Jake Gyllenhaal. He was not really on my radar, but Stronger has earned him raves. In a race that I actually think is rather weak, he is a previous nominee who recently missed out for some great roles, and this is the type of role that actors love. I think he finally earns himself a second Oscar nomination. While younger actors have always struggled here, I think that Timothee Chalamet, who is apparently just awesome in Call Me By Your Name can be an exception to the rule, if the film continues to play well. The last two slots I am saving for sights unseen. Daniel Day-Lewis is re-teaming up with Paul Thomas Anderson in what he says will be his last film. And Hugh Jackman gets to sing, dance, and play a real life character. Plus he also has a stunning performance in Logan to bolster him. I think that, on paper at least, these look like perfect roles for two beloved actors. My first alternate slot goes to Tom Hanks. Like always, folks are rushing to predict him, but then I go back to Captain Phillips and Bridge of Spies, and so many other performances in the last fifteen years that have been overlooked. So for now, I am leaving him out. Beyond those six, the field, in my opinion, gets muddled. You have previous winners and nominees like Jeremy Renner, Andrew Garfield, James Franco, Steve Carell, Denzel Washington, Christian Bale, Ryan Gosling, Matt Damon, Kevin Spacey, Javier Bardem, Robert Redfrod, Kenneth Branagh, and Tom Cruise. But in each of their cases, there is something that makes me hesitate. It's either the film is not well-received, or the film is too small, or to controversial, or lacking buzz. But for whatever reason, none have risen to the top. YOu have legends like Sam Elliott and Donald Sutherland doing great late-career work, and young talents like Chadwick Boseman, Daniel Kaluuya, Kumail Nanjiani, Miles Teller, Robert Pattinson, and John Boyega patiently waiting for Oscar breakthrough. But right now, they all need more buzz to breakthrough.