Best Writing in a Comedy Series
Will Win - Aziz Ansari and Lena Waithe "Master of None - Thanksgiving"
Could Win - Donald Glover "Atlanta - B.A.N" or David Mandel "Veep - Groundbreaking"
Should Win - David Mandel "Veep - Groundbreaking"
Commentary - Over the last decade or so, this category has alternated between rewarding the front runners and rewarding the auteur/out of the box. For every Veep, Modern Family, 30 Rock, and The Office win, there has been a win for Malcolm in the Middle, My Name is Earl, Louie, Louie and Master of None. This year, there is (I think), a three-way race between two auteurs, and one front runner. After its win last year, which was a bit of a surprise, Master of None comes back into the race with Thanksgiving, which is the type of episode that writers eat up. I think it wins again. But watch out for the likes of Donald Glover (who is clearly a favorite among voters this year), and the always powerful Veep, whose Groundbreaking episode showcased veep at its nasty and hilarious best.
Best Directing in a Comedy Series
Will Win - Donald Glover "Atlanta - B.A.N."
Could Win - David Mandel "Veep - Groundbreaking"
Should Win - David Mandel "Veep - Groundbreaking"
Commentary - Veep has never won a directing award, despite racking up a total of six nominations over two years. I think this is for several reasons. 1) Vote splitting. They submitted way too many episodes and if they had combined all those votes into one episode, they probably would have won. 2) Directors like big, they like a lot of moving parts, and most of Veep is the ensemble sitting in a room saying horrible things to each other (which works by the way). This is how shows with lots of color and pop like Pushing Daisies, Glee, Modern Family, and Ugly Betty have won here as of late. I think that Donald Glover's auteur sense, and attempts to build something aesthetically different were successful, and will catch the eye of his fellow directors.
Best Writing in a Drama Series
Will Win - Bruce Miller "The Handmaid's Tale - Offred (Pilot)"
Could Win - The Duffer Brothers "Stranger Things - Chapter 1: The Vanishing of Will Byers" or Gordon Smith "Better Call Saul - Chicanery" or Peter Morgan "The Crown - Assassins"
Should Win - Gordon Smith "Better Call Saul - Chicanery"
Commentary - This one really is a toss up, and I could see a scenario where any of the six nominees could win. The Duffer Brothers are definitely in the mix, but I think they have a better shot in directing, where their mood and mystery will play better with voters. Peter Morgan is a real threat for The Crown, as he is an Emmy nominated and Oscar nominated screenwriter. Finally, I think that Chicanery is one of the best episodes of the season, and was beautifully constructed. All of this being said, I think that the darkness, the tension, and the modern applicability of the haunting and brilliant Handmaid's Tale's pilot will take the prize in a close and tough race to call.
Best Directing in a Drama Series
Will Win - The Duffer Brothers "Stranger Things: Chapter 1: The Vanishing of Will Byers"
Could Win - Stephen Daldry "The Crown - Hyde Park Corner", Reed Morano "The Handmaid's Tale - Offred (Pilot)", or Jonathan Nolan "Westworld - The Bicameral Mind"
Should Win - The Duffer Brothers "Stranger Things: Chapter 1: The Vanishing of Will Byers"
Commentary - I think this is a four-way race, that like its writing counterpart, is a tough call. Stephen Daldry is a favorite among Oscar voters, and may find a similar audience with Emmy voters (this is his first nomination). The Handmaid's Tale Pilot could go 2/2 with writing and directing, and is a real threat for its almost auteur feel and aesthetic. Finally, Westworld is stylish and mysterious, and could appeal to fellow directors. It doesn't hurt that Jonathan is the son of Christopher Nolan. But I think that Stranger Things was so popular and so well-liked across the board to not take something of substance. Plus, the first Chapter was a great combination of character development, plot development, and perfectly set the tone, mood, and feel for an addicting and stylish series. In a close race, I pick the Duffer brothers.
Best Writing in a Limited Series or TV Movie
Will Win - David E. Kelly "Big Little Lies"
Could Win - Ryan Murphy "Feud: Bette and Joan - And the Winner is...(The Oscars of 1963)" or Richard Price and Steve Zaillian "The Night Of - Call of the Wild"
Should Win - Ryan Murphy "Feud: Bette and Joan - And the Winner is...(The Oscars of 1963)"
Could Win - This race and its directing counterpart will be bellwethers for how the rest of the night is going to go in the great battle between Feud and Big Little Lies. I think this is brewing to be a big night for Big Little Lies, and David E. Kelly is an Emmy legend. But Ryan Murphy and Steve Zaillian are names on a ballot that cannot be ignored, and could provide an upset.
Best Directing in a Limited Series or TV Movie
Will Win - Jean-Marc Vallee "Big Little Lies"
Could Win - Ryan Murphy "Feud: Bette and Joan - And the Winner is...(The Oscars of 1963)" or Ron Howard "Genius - Einstein: Chapter One"
Should Win - Ryan Murphy "Feud: Bette and Joan - And the Winner is...(The Oscars of 1963)"
Commentary - This is a big battle between three popular directors. Ryan Murphy's take on the 1963 Oscars was so juicy and awesome, and Ron Howard is an Oscar-winning director whose name will inspire votes on a ballot. But, if Big Little Lies is as popular as it seems and with Jean-Marc Vallee at the helm, I think it sweeps both these categories on its way to a lot of Emmy glory.
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