The Oscar Narrative: First 2018 Oscar Predictions - Best Original Screenplay

First 2018 Predictions
Mark Boal "Detroit"
Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor "Downsizing"
Michael Arndt, Jenny Bicks, and Bill Condon "The Greatest Showman"
Michael Haneke "Happy End"
Paul Thomas Anderson "Phantom Thread"

Other Contenders - Adrian Molina and Lee Unkrich "Coco", Anthony McCarten "Darkest Hour", Christopher Nolan "Dunkirk", Darren Aronofsky "Mother!", George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Joel and Ethan Coen "Suburbicon", Simon Beaufoy "Battle of the Sexes", Taylor Sheridan "Wind River", Jordan Peele "Get Out", Woody Allen "Wonder Wheel", Kumail Nanjiani and Emily V. Gordon "The Big Sick", Efthymis Filippou and Yorgos Lanthimos "The Killing of a Sacred Deer", Martin McDonagh "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri", Vanessa Taylor and Guillermo del Toro "The Shape of Water", Michael Mitnick "The Current War", Diablo Cody "Tully", Peter Landesman "Felt", Bong Joon-ho and Jon Ronson "Okja", Kate Dippold "Snatched", Greta Gerwig "Lady Bird", Scott Cooper and Donald Stewart "Hostiles", David Robert Mitchell "Under the Silver Lake", Noah Baumbach "The Meyerowitz Stories", Sean Baker and Chris Bergoch "The Florida Project", Gregg Hurwitz "The Book of Henry", Olivier Assayas "Personal Shopper", Jeremy Haft, Eddie Gonzalez, Steven Bagatourian "All Eyez on Me", Geremy Jasper "Patti Cake$", Eliza Hittman "Beach Rats", Carlos Kotkin, Simon Moore, and Tom Sheridan "The Star"

Commentary - A lot of big names are returning to this race. Mark Boal (with Kathryn Bigelow at the helm), Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor, Micheal Haneke, Michael Arndt, and Paul Thomas Anderson all have buzzed projects returning, and right now those five films make up my current predictions: Detroit, Downsizing, The Greatest Showman, Happy End, and Phantom Thread. But there are a lot of folks waiting to try to steal some slots. Christopher Nolan returns with his WWII epic Dunkirk, previous nominee Anthony McCarten tackled Winston Churchill, Woody Allen has yet another offering, The Coen Bros. and George Clooney are teaming up again, Oscar winner Martin McDonagh returns, and last year's nominees Taylor Sheridan, and the team of Filippou and Lanthimos hope to have back to back successes. Simon Beaufoy returns to the Oscar race with a new film from the duo behind Little Miss Sunshine, as does Guillero Del Toro and Diablo Cody. Indie favorites like Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach, Scott Cooper, Bong Joon-ho, David Robert Mitchell, Olivier Assayas, and the breakout success that was Jordan Peele's Get Out hope to be one of those small films that the writing branch goes to bat for. Finally, look for some of the Sundance favorites like Patti Cake$ and Beach Rats which let the festival with a ton of buzz. It's always too early to really determine any race, but this one looks like it is going to be a fun one to watch.