The Oscar Narrative: Final Oscar Predictions - Best Original and Adapted Screenplay

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win - Charles Randolph and Adam McKay "The Big Short"
Could Win - Emma Donoghue "Room"
Should Win - Drew Goddard "The Martian"
Commentary - I think Drew Goddard pulled off a feat translating The Martian to the screen, and I still haven't gotten over the Aaron Sorkin snub. But I digress. This is The Big Short's to lose. It is the Best Picture front runner of the bunch, and has won every major precursor for this that matters. If anyone upsets it is Room, which clearly has some support.

Best Original Screenplay
Will Win - Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer "Spotlight"
Could Win - Jonathan Herman, Andrea Berloff, Alan Wenkus, and S. Leigh Savidge "Straight Outta Compton"
Should Win - Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley and Ronnie Del Carmen "Inside Out"
Commentary - Inside Out should win this category by a mile. There is no film more original, vibrant, or deserving. But once again, this is Spotlight's to lose. It has hit the right notes all season, and might be (like The Big Short), the one award it takes as a consolation prize. If anything upsets it is Straight Outta Compton. Yes, all of the screenwriters are white, but it could send a message to the rest of world that they are paying attention to obvious issues. For the record, I hope that if Straight Outta Compton wins, it is because it is a great film, I just know that politics plays too heavily sometimes in a lot of these votes .