State of the Race: October Oscar Predictions - Best Adapted Screenplay

October Predictions
Chris Terro "Argo"
Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin "Beasts of the Southern Wild"
Peter Jackson, Fran Walsh, Phillppa Boyen, and Guillermo Del Toro "The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey"
Tony Kushner, John Logan, and Paul Webb "Lincoln"
David O. Russell "Silver Linings Playbook"

Other Contenders - William Nicholson "Les Miserables", David Magee "Life of Pi", Jose Rivera "On the Road", Ben Lewin "The Sessions", Tom Twyker, Lana and Andy Wachowski "Cloud Atlas", Christopher and Jonathan Nolan "The Dark Knight Rises", Ol Parker "The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel", Tom Stoppard "Anna Karenina",  Judd Apatow "This is 40", John J. McLaughlin "Hitchcock", Ronald Harwood "Quartet", Jacques Audiard and Bidegain "Rust and Bone", Andrew Dominik "Killing Them Softly", Stephen Chbosky "The Perks of Being a Wallflower" 

Commentary - With the emergence of Argo and Silver Linings Playbook as festival favorites, their screenplays have jumped to the top of the pile as the biggest contenders. While I think both are definitely strong in this category, I think it is too early to call them winners, as there are many below them that could be game changers. The biggest elephant in the room is Lincoln. If it is great, then it will be a tough one to beat down the line, same goes for Les Miserables, although I have left it out because musicals in screenplay categories can sometimes be tricky. Life of Pi is another possibility, although that is the one negative I have heard about the film, and it could end up like Avatar, with lots of technicals, BP/BD, but not enough support for its screenplay. One film we have seen is Beasts of the Southern Wild, and while it will need a big campaign to survive the onslaught of movies this fall, I still think it is in a good position in this category. Finally, while the rest of the blogger world is doubting The Hobbit, because they think it may be lighter than LOTR, and fatigue might come into play, I personally think that history tells us that it will be good, and will be a hit with voting members. Until we start to see some reviews, I am not going to doubt it.