127 Hours
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
The Social Network (Predicted Winner)
Toy Story 3
The Way Back
True Grit
Other Contenders: Black Swan, Love and Other Drugs, Shutter Island, Rabbit Hole, Hereafter, Blue Valentine, Winter’s Bone, Made in Dagenham, For Colored Girls Who Have Considered Suicide When the Rainbow is Enuf, Somewhere, How to Train Your Dragon.
Commentary: This race is starting to really heat up, and until some precursors start coming out, there are going to be a lot of backs and forths of which fims get in and which don't. For me there are a few films which are coming in really strong, and are the most solid. From the summer, Toy Story 3 and The Kids Are All Right seem to be holding their buzz (and most likely will maintain it). I also included Inception from the summer, but as the onslaught of the festivals brings out some solid contenders, I am getting more and more hesitant about that pic. Speaking of festivals, a few movies have come out of the festivals really ruling the coverage. The King's Speech, 127 Hours, and Another Year are all making big gains, and have solidified their presence in the top ten. I still put two big question marks simply because of their buzz, True Grit, The Fighter, because of their cast and crew. The last two spots were the trickiest. I put The Way Back over Black Swan because I feel that only one "non-Oscar, but could be Oscar" film gets in, and Peter Weir is an Academy favorite, although I think that by the end of the year Black Swan will be up there. The final spot goes the movie that is getting the best buzz and best early reviews, The Social Network, and could be the one to beat this year.
Danny Boyle “127 Hours”
David Fincher “The Social Network” (Predicted Winner)
Tom Hooper “The King’s Speech”
Christopher Nolan “Inception”
David O. Russell “The Fighter”
Commentary: If you think the Best Picture category is stacked, then you can't imagine the Directing category. I stuck with more conventional choices, although some are probably going to be nominees, such as David Fincher and Danny Boyle. If The King's Speech holds on, then it's director should get some credit. The last two spots are a little shakier. Christopher Nolan should be nominated, but we all know how that usually turns out, so I honestly don't know his chances at this point. Finally, I went with the pundit consensus David O. Russell, but this is only if The Fighter is good.
Jeff Bridges “True Grit”
Colin Farrell “The Way Back”
Colin Firth “The King’s Speech” (Predicted Winner)
James Franco “127 Hours” Mark Wahlberg “The Fighter”
Other Contenders: Jesse Eisenberg “The Social Network, Leonardo Dicaprio “Inception” and “Shutter Island”, Ryan Gosling “Blue Valentine”, Robert Duvall “Get Low”, Sean Penn “Fair Game”, Michael Douglas “Solitary Man”, Javier Bardem “Biutiful”, Matt Damon “Hereafter”
Commentary: This one is also giving me some trouble, although not nearly as much as the next one. If True Grit is any good, you can bet that last year's winner Jeff Bridges will be back in the mix. I also think that is Mark Whalberg is as good as I think he will be, then he is in as well. For me though it comes down to Firth vs. Franco for the win, and I don't know at this point who will come out on top. The final spot goes to Colin Farrell, who has made a career turnaround lately and has a couple of great performances out this year, so maybe he'll finally get some Oscar love.
Annette Bening “The Kids are All Right” (Predicted Winner)
Sally Hawkins “Made in Dagenham”
Nicole Kidman “Rabbit Hole”
Leslie Manville “Another Year”
Natalie Portman “Black Swan” Other Contenders: Anne Hathaway “Love and Other Drugs”, Julianne Moore “The Kids Are All Right”, Jennifer Lawrence “Winter’s Bone”, Naomi Watts “Fair Game”, Michelle Williams “Blue Valentine”, Emma Stone “Easy A”, Gwyneth Paltrow "Country Strong"
Commentary: Proving to be the hardest to predict, by the time I post this the buzz may have shifted. Right now though I'm going with what I think are the best five. Annette Benning is probably a lock, despite the competition from her co-star, because this seems to be her year. It is also Natalie Portman's year, who will probably be Bening's biggest competition. The other three spots are kind of tricky. I kept Leslie Manville up, but my guess is that they may push her Supporting where there is less competition. I also went with Mike Leigh's last muse Sally Hawkins because the buzz is great for Made in Dagenham, particularly for the performances. Finally, the newest contender Nicole Kidman, has gotten rave reviews, and her former winner status means she is popular in the Academy. Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale “The Fighter"
Andrew Garfield “The Social Network” Sam Rockwell “Conviction” (Predicted Winner)
Mark Ruffalo “The Kids Are All Right”
Geoffrey Rush “The King’s Speech”
Other Contenders: Justin Timberlake “The Social Network”, Jeremy Renner “The Town”, Chris Cooper “The Town”, Jim Broadbent “Another Year”, Aaron Eckhart “Rabbit Hole”, Bill Murray “Get Low”, Bob Hoskins “Made in Dagenham”Best Supporting Actress
Helen Bonham Carter “The King’s Speech” (Predicted Winner)
Rebecca Hall "The Town"
Melissa Leo “The Fighter”
Miranda Richardson “Made in Dagenham”
Dianne Wiest “Rabbit Hole”
Other Contenders: Hailee Steinfeld “True Grit”, Mila Kunis “Black Swan”, Barbara Hershey “Black Swan”, Marion Cotillard “Inception”, Andrea Riseborough “Brighton Rock”, Elle Fanning “Somewhere”, Amy Adams “The Fighter”, Kiera Knightly “Never Let Me Go”, For Colored Girls (entire cast)
Commentary: Probably the weakest category this year, nonetheless there are lots of contenders. Two older favorites Miranda Richardson and Dianne Wiest are back in the game this year, and both are said to be brilliant. HBC is an overdue actor, and right now seems to be the frontrunner for her King's Speech role. The last two slots are not as confident. I went with an Amy Ryan-type nomination in Rebecca Hall, and may be The Town's consilation prize. Finally, the great Melissa Leo finally got an Oscar nod two years ago, and her (as well as her co-star Amy Adams) roles look great in The Fighter, hopefully leading to yet another nod.
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