2016 Emmy Predictions: Best Writing and Directing in a Comedy Series

Best Directing in a Comedy Series
Will Win - Jill Soloway "Transparent - Man of the Land"

Could Win - Dale Stern "Veep - Mother", Aziz Ansari "Master of None - Parents"

Should Win - Dale Stern "Veep - Mother"

Commentary - Mother is close, it should be it's the best of bunch. But Parents is clearly a well-liked episode, and Jill Soloway won this last year. Transparent doesn't quite have the buzz it had last season, but it managed to, once again, rack up a lot of Emmy nominations. This a close race, but I think Transparent takes this one again.

Best Writing in a Comedy Series
Will Win - Alex Gregory and Peter Huyck "Veep - Mother"

Could Win - Aziz Ansari "Master of None - Parents" or Dan O'Keefe "Silicon Valley - Founder Friendly"

Should Win - Alex Gregory and Peter Huyck "Veep - Mother"

Commentary - A lot of folks think Catastrophe can pull off an upset, and it is not outside the realm of possibility. But I think that the three ahead of it, are the shows actually nominated for Best Comedy Series. Founder Friendly and Parents are great episodes, and either could win over the voters. But the best written, directed and acted comedy episode of the six is easily Veep's Mother. I think it wins.

2016 Venice Film Festival: La La Land Lands With Massive Oscar Potential

The Venice Film Festival kicked off, which to me is the real start of Oscar season. First, let me say this: Thank GOD! It has been a long summer, and I am glad that the Oscar race has returned to hopefully bring me sanity once again. Well, Oscar season is off to a bang with Damien Chazelle's latest, La La Land. Oscar voters loved Whiplash, and rightfully so, it was masterful. But, according to reviews, Chazelle has surpassed his first previous work. The variety of reviews that have been release so far have ranged from masterpiece to incredible, to Oscar front runner. Also mentioned heavily are the two main leads, with Stone taking the most praise. The Oscar season is young, and there are a lot of movies left to see. But so far, as the fall festivals kick into gear, La La Land has set a high bar for what is sure to be yet another fabulous Oscar season. To quote Frank Underwood: "welcome back".

2016 Emmy Predictions: Best Limited Series and Best Television Movie

Best Limited Series
Will Win - The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story

Could Win - Fargo

Should Win - The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story

Commentary - Fargo is strong, but in terms of nominations, buzz, and probable wins, no one gets close to The People v. O.J. Simpson. This is tough race, with The Night Manager, American Crime and Roots rounding out the category. But I think this is The People v. O.J. Simpson's to lose.

Best TV Movie
Will Win - All the Way

Could Win - Everyone but A Very Murray Christmas

Should Win - All the Way

Commentary - In a weak race, I think All the Way, with its cast, director, and HBO behind it, is going to take the gold. But Confirmation was well liked, they have shown love for Sherlock in the past, and Luther has gotten some other awards attention recently. 

2016 MTV VMA Award Winners

VIDEO OF THE YEAR
Beyoncé “Formation”

BEST FEMALE VIDEO
Beyoncé “Hold Up”

BEST MALE VIDEO
Calvin Harris ft. Rihanna "This Is What You Came For"

BEST COLLABORATION
Fifth Harmony ft. Ty Dolla $ign "Work From Home"

BEST HIP HOP VIDEO
Drake "Hotline Bling"

BEST POP VIDEO
Beyoncé – “Formation”

SONG OF SUMMER
Fifth Harmony featuring Fetty Wap "All In My Head"

BEST ROCK VIDEO
twenty one pilots “Heathens”

BEST ELECTRONIC VIDEO
Calvin Harris & Disciples “How Deep Is Your Love”

BREAKTHROUGH LONG FORM VIDEO
Beyoncé "Lemonade"

BEST NEW ARTIST
DNCE

BEST ART DIRECTION
David Bowie “Blackstar” (Production Designer: Jan Houllevigue)

BEST CHOREOGRAPHY
Beyoncé “Formation” (Choreographer: Chris Grant, JaQuel Knight, Dana Foglia)

BEST DIRECTION
Beyoncé “Formation” (Director: Melina Matsoukas)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Beyoncé “Formation” (Cinematographer: Malik Sayeed)

BEST EDITING
Beyoncé “Formation” (Editor: Jeff Selis)

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Coldplay “Up&Up” (VFX Editor: Vania Heymann, Gloria FX)

2016 Emmy Predictions: Best Actor in a TV Movie or Limited Series

Will Win - Courtney B. Vance "The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story"

Could Win - Bryan Cranston "All the Way"

Should Win - Courtney B. Vance "The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story"

Commentary - A two-race race for the ages is brewing here, and it really boils down to a few factors. I think Courtney B. Vance is going to win this race. In his long illustrious career on television and in film, he has never gotten an Emmy nomination. These voters love this miniseries, he is a powerhouse, easily the best of the bunch, and that does make a difference. But he is up against Emmy juggernaut Bryan Cranston, who has already won a Tony for this role as LBJ, and last year was an Oscar nominee. I think Vance wins, but it will be a close one to the finish.

2016 Emmy Predictions: Best Actress in a TV Movie/Limited Series

Will Win - Sarah Paulson "The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story"

Could Win - Kerry Washington "Confirmation", Kirsten Dunst "Fargo", or Lili Taylor "American Crime" 

Should Win - Sarah Paulson "The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story" 

Commentary - Oh come on Emmy voters! PLEASE DON'T SCREW THIS UP AGAIN! Sarah Paulson has churned out incredible performance after incredible performance on American Horror Story for five season (she is nominated again this year in Supporting). Every year you manage to screw it up and not give her an Emmy, despite continually nominating her. This is your opportunity to make things right. Kerry Washington, Kirsten Dunst, and Lili Taylor are all fantastic in their roles this season, and any of them would be worthy winners, and all are possibilities. But this is Sarah Paulson's year. Her role as Marcia Clark is simply jaw-dropping, the series is clearly the most popular of the bunch, and most importantly: it is time. 

The Oscar Narrative: Pre-Festival Predictions - Best Picture

Pre-Festival Predictions
Arrival
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
The Birth of a Nation
Fences
La-La Land
Loving
Manchester By the Sea
Passengers
Silence
Sully

Other Contenders - Allied, The Light Between Oceans, Nocturnal Animals, Moonlight, 20th Century Women, American Pastoral, Lion, Florence Foster Jenkins, The Promise, Queen of Katwe, Rules Don't Apply, The Girl on the Train, HHhH, Miss Sloane, Snowden, The Lobster, Deadpool, Hidden Figures, Zootopia, Moana, Kubo and the Two Strings, Trolls, Finding Dory, Collateral Beauty, War Machine, Deepwater Horizon, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, The BFG, LBJ, American Honey, The Fits, Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children, Captain America: Civil War, Wild Oats, Hell or High Water, Pete's Dragon

Commentary - Can Ang Lee finally win the top prize? Two Best Director prizes, but no Best Pictures is an unusual track record. His newest, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk, looks great, as does Scorsese's and Eastwood's Silence and Sully. The Birth of a Nation is a couple of weeks from a full crash and burn, but if this scandal can be overcome, I think Oscar voters will appreciate the film, if not the filmmaker. Two sci-fi entries have potential, and after several made the cut last year, you can see the Academy appreciating genre films more and more. Arrival and Passengers have the directors and the cast to grab Oscar attention. Denzel Washington is bringing his Tony-winning adaptation of Fences to the big screen, once again opposite Viola Davis. Damien Chazelle's Whiplash was beloved by Oscar voters, and this time he brings us a musical with Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling. Finally, two indie favorites, Manchester By the Sea and Loving, are already known entities with rave reviews out of Sundance and Cannes respectively. Beyond these ten, there is Robert Zemecki's latest Allied with Brad Pitt and Marion Cotillard, the adaptation of The Light Between Oceans, Frear's Florence Foster Jenkins, Queen of Katwe, and Warren Beatty's latest Rules Don't Apply. There are a slew of big casts leading Oscar potentials including Moonlight, Lion, American Pastoral, 20th Century Women, War Machine, HHhH, Nocturnal Animals, and Collateral Beauty. What about Stone's Snowden, The Lobster, Miss Sloane, and the highly anticipated adaptation of The Girl on the Train? There is the historical Hidden Figures, LBJ, Cannes hit American Honey, surprise summer hit Hell or High Water, and Weinstein's Wild Oats. Then there are the big blockbuster, who keep hoping that an expanded Best Picture race, and changing demographics will up their Oscar chances: Deadpool, Civil War, Pete's Dragon, The BFG, Rogue One, Miss Peregrine's, Kubo and the Two Strings, Moana, Trolls, Finding Dory, and Zootopia.

2016 Emmy Predictions: Best Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress in a TV Movie or Limited Series

Best Supporting Actor in a TV Movie/Limited Series
Will Win - Sterling K. Brown "The People Vs. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story"

Could Win - Hugh Laurie "The Night Manager" or John Travolta "The People Vs. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story"

Should Win - Sterling K. Brown "The People Vs. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story"

Commentary - Will the Emmy voters pull another Bill Murray? Here's what I mean. Bill Murray won for a so-so role in Olive Kitteridge (the best miniseries of last year, an outstanding piece of work). I mean he was fine, but he had a small role tacked on the end, and wasn't nearly as impressive as his co-star Frances McDormand. He won because he was up against lesser-known entities like Finn Wittrock, Michael Kenneth Williams, and Richard Cabral, all much better performers. I am worried that a similar fate is awaiting John Travolta. Unlike Murray though, his performance in American Crime Story was not great at all, and despite his name recognition, was probably the weakest link in an otherwise stellar ensemble. Instead, I am hoping that voters loved the show so much, that they actually watched it, and recognize that it is Sterling K. Brown's performance Christopher Darden that was the much better performance and reward him the Emmy instead. There is a third option for Emmy voters, particularly if vote-splitting occurs. Six times Hugh Laurie was nominated for Best Actor in a Drama series for House, and six times he lost. These voters clearly like The Night Manager, he is way overdue for an Emmy award, and is fantastic in the series. Watch out for that dark horse.

Best Supporting Actress in a TV Movie/Limited Series
Will Win - Jean Smart "Fargo"

Could Win - Regina King "American Crime" or Kathy Bates "American Horror Story: Hotel"

Should Win - Jean Smart "Fargo"

Commentary - With no nominees from The People vs. O.J. Simpson, this race is intriguing. The last two winners, Kathy Bates and Regina King, are back in this race with more stellar work. But Fargo needs to win something, it is too well-liked by these voters, and Jean Smart is the best part of an incredible series. She is a three-time Emmy winner, gives a jaw-dropping performance, and I think she wins Emmy #4.

2016 Emmy Predictions: Best Directing and Writing in a TV Movie or Limited Series

Best Directing in a TV Movie or Limited Series
Will Win - Ryan Murphy "The People Vs. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story - From the Ashes of Tragedy"

Could Win - Jay Roach "All the Way" or John Singleton "The People vs. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story - The Race Card"

Should Win -  John Singleton "The People vs. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story - The Race Card"

Commentary - This is a hot three-way race (and I wouldn't discount The Night Manager either). I think that the juggernaut that is The People Vs. O.J. Simpson is in for quite a sweep. I personally preferred John Singleton's work, but I think that Murphy's is the bigger of the two, and I suspect the director's branch will reward him for also creating this mammoth. But, do not discount a vote split. Especially, when Emmy favorite is on the ballot. He has won this category before, and while All the Way wasn't quite the punch we expected, do not discount these repetitive Emmy voters.

Best Writing in a TV Movie or Limited Series
Will Win  - Scott Alexander and Larry Karaszewski "The People Vs. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story - From the Ashes of Tragedy"

Could Win - Joe Robert Cole "The People Vs. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story - The Race Card" or one of the Fargo episodes

Should Win - Bob DeLaurentis "Fargo - Loplop"

Commentary - That episode, From the Ashes of Tragedy is clearly beloved by these voters, and I think that it will sweep both of these categories. But don't discount the other episodes from O.J. Simpson, or the Fargo episodes, particularly Loplop, which was brilliant.

2016 Emmy Predictions: Pre-Festival Predictions - Best Reality-Competition Series

Will Win - The Voice

Could Win - The Amazing Race

Should Win - Project Runway

Commentary - If RuPaul was nominated here, he would easily be my pick, but of the bunch, I really don't have much of an attachment. Of the bunch, it would be nice to see Project Runway to win one of these things. But alas, this is a two-way race between the last two winners of this race. The Voice might finally get a leg up on The Amazing Race, but never discount the latter. It was a juggernaut in this race for over a decade, and Emmy voters could easily repeat themselves.