The Oscar Narrative: The End

Joy. That is how I would describe Sunday night's Oscars. It was pure joy. Sure, it went too long. Not all of the jokes landed. They missed some key people in the In Memoriam. The Oscars are never going to be perfect. They are a 3.5 hour long live television event that doesn't doesn't have a sports ball to distract you. People who want perfection out of the Oscars are always going to be disappointed. They probably need to wake up and realize that you are not going to get what you want. But every once in awhile, you do really get what you need. I needed a normal Oscars. I totally felt the Jimmy Kimmel bit at the end where he noted we have gone a total of 1 Academy Awards without an incident. That is a sad streak. But it is nice to know that maybe, just maybe, we are getting back on track. 

So back to Joy. It was joy to see hard working veterans like Michelle Yeoh, Jamie Lee Curtis, Ke Huy Quan, and Brendan Fraser finally get recognition for their talent. All of them had trouble getting to this point. The guys both left Hollywood. The girls were relegated to genre films, and probably neither or any of them, ever thought that their name would come after "The Oscar goes to...". Joy was seeing a young, talented directing team, with so much creativity, win their first Oscars, and the fact that it could lead to more in what is sure to be a long career for this dynamic duo. Joy was seeing Ruth Carter become the first black artist to win two Academy Awards. I hope she is not the first for to much longer. Joy was seeing the Naatu Naatu writers win for their unexpected uplifting hit. Joy was celebrating the Academy Museum and legendary studios who are marking their first century in filmmaking. Joy was seeing a stripped-down Lady Gaga knock it out of the park. Joy was seeing big blockbusters, small indies, and films from all over the world, win Oscars celebrating the global impact of this industry. Joy was seeing Asian and Asian American artists finally get their time in the spotlight in a huge way. Joy was seeing my favorite film of the year win the Best Picture Oscar. Joy was seeing Harrison Ford being able to embrace his long-time colleague and friend Ke Huy Quan in celebration of his, and his film's, amazing triumph. Joy was recognizing that the Oscars are what they needed to be: a celebration. Celebrating something we love is not easy, when that thing is constantly under a microscope, constantly having to defend itself, constantly changing, and yet never seeming to change fast enough. Does the Academy still have a long way to go? Yes. Will is probably always be such a massive organization that it is destined to always be one step behind? Yes. So what do I love it? Because it is still the highlight and gold standard for rewarding the medium of film. Because it celebrates artists on a global stage. Because its supports filmmakers and their goals. Because, when it is done right, when deserving artists and films win and get nominated, and when it sticks to celebrating them and their successes, it is pure Joy.

Everything Everywhere All at Once winning is a watershed moment for the Academy. It represents genres that are often ignored, it represents a millennial and Gen-Z generation that the Academy needs to court to continue to stay relevant. It represents diversity in its most effective form. Finally, it represents quality, and does so in an organic way. I hope that voters realize that sometimes the films that we think we are not going to like, or seem to weird, or aren't the usual genre of choice, can sometimes surprise us, and prove us wrong. This film proves that we can bridge our divides by finding our common humanity in art. I have always preached that going to the movies, sharing that dark space with community, turning off our phones and experiencing something miraculous on screen, is a cathartic, joyous, and bonding experience that we desperately need in our dark and divided times. Let's continue to explore these spaces and these stories together and never forget the power of film.

This year marks Year 14 for The Awards Psychic. What a journey this has been, and its not ending anytime soon. We will, in the next weeks start to tackle the Tonys, the Daytime Emmys, start thinking about the Primetime Emmys. Cannes will hit in May, then the summer blockbusters, then the Fall festivals, then the critics awards, then the guilds, and then the Oscars. It is a cycle that I never get tired of, despite every reason to do so. There is a moment in Everything Everywhere All At Once where Michelle Yeoh's Evelyn is talking to her daughter, and she says: "Maybe there is something out there, some new discovery that will make us feel like even smaller pieces of shit. Something that explains why you still went looking for me through all of this noise. And why, no matter what, I still want to be here with you. I will always, always, want to be here with you." As long as I can, as long as there are Oscars to cover, narratives and stories to tell, and joy to be had, I will be here with all of you, the fans of The Awards Psychic, the few and far between, to continue our never-ending quest to find the best. Thank you for another year at this blog. Cheers to year 14. 

The 95th Academy Awards

I will update the winners live!

Best Picture - Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Director - Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert "Everything Everywhere All at Once"

Best Actor - Brendan Fraser "The Whale"

Best Actress - Michelle Yeoh "Everything Everywhere All at Once"

Best Supporting Actor - Ke Huy Quan "Everything Everywhere All at Once"

Best Supporting Actress - Jamie Lee Curtis "Everything Everywhere All at Once"

Best Adapted Screenplay - Sarah Polley "Women Talking"

Best Original Screenplay - Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert "Everything Everywhere All at Once"

Best Animated Feature - Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio

Best Documentary Feature - Navalny

Best International Feature - All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)

Best Cinematography - James Friend "All Quiet on the Western Front"

Best Costume Design - Ruth Carter "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever" 

Best Film Editing - Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Makeup and Hairstyling - The Whale

Best Original Score - All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Original Song - RRR - Naatu Naatu

Best Production Design - All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Sound - Top Gun: Maverick

Best Visual Effects - Avatar: The Way of Water

Best Animated Short - The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and The Horse

Best Documentary Short - The Elephant Whisperers

Best Live Action Short - An Irish Goodbye

13th Annual Awards Psychic Awards Winners

Best Picture – Drama

Winner - The Fabelmans

Runners Up - Close, Decision to Leave, TAR, Aftersun, EO, Women Talking, She Said

Commentary - Steven Spielberg has made classics. Bold historical epics like Schindler's List, Saving Private Ryan, and Lincoln. He has made some of the greatest science fiction, fantasy, adventure and horror films of all time including Jaws, E.T., Close Encounters of the Third Kind, The Indiana Jones Trilogy, and Jurassic Park. He even tackled a movie musical remake last year, bringing new life and energy to West Side Story. The Fabelmans doesn't fit into any of these boxes. It is probably his most sedate, quite, charming film, but also his most personal. Led by a young actor, Gabriel LaBelle, who should have been in the conversation for a Best Actor nomination, we see a young Steven Spielberg revisit the formative years of his childhood, his first homemade films, and the divorce of his parents. Of course, in true Spielberg fashion, this is not a straight autobiographical film. Instead, it is a dream transported into a cinematic memory, with flare, and humor that was probably not as prominent in his actual life. An ensemble including Paul Dano, Michelle Williams, Seth Rogen and Judd Hirsch, an amazing script by Spielberg, and the still Oscar-less Tony Kushner, and the usual amazing production values brought on by some of the best technical cinematic wizards in the business including John Williams, Rick Carter, Janusz Kaminski, and Mark Bridges, who combined have eleven Academy Awards, all make The Fabelmans an impeccably made piece of art, and a satisfying emotional experience. I think what I loved the most though was Spielberg's personal passion, that clearly shown through every frame. Spielberg, like so many of us, fell in love with the power of film. He wanted to showcase that love, and celebrate the cinematic experience. He wanted to remind us of the power of going to the movies. He did just that and so much more.

Best Picture – Comedy/Musical

Winner - Bros

Runners Up - Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Triangle of Sadness

Commentary - Now there are going to be some that balk at this pick. Go ahead. Straight people have had romantic comedies for 100 years. Finally, a major studio release features a gay couple in the lead, on the big screen, having the classic rom-com experience. I wish more people had gone to see it, and I hope its box office failure doesn't discourage studios from continuing to pursue LGBTQ stories. Also, it was just a great film. It was swoony and romantic, laugh out loud funny, and openly acknowledged its place in film history. A great comedy, a great story, a great cast, and a great film experience. 

Best Picture – Sci-Fi/Fantasy/Action/Horror

Winner - Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runners Up - Avatar: The Way of Water, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Nope, Top Gun: Maverick

The Woman King

Commentary - How do we talk about this film? What do we say that hasn't already been said? A great, inventive, funny, original screenplay. A stunning cast. Incredible directing from the The Daniels, that shows incredible control in the midst of chaos. Funny, zany, wild, and enormously entertaining. I think it was third viewing though where it finally hit just how much I loved this film. It wasn't the humor, or the fantasy, or the hot dog fingers. It was the heart that really hit. This film is about love, family, overcoming struggles, the immigrant experience, making new friends, finding new connections. It is that human component, beautifully wrought by this cast and crew, that make Everything Everywhere All at Once the best film of the year. 

Best Picture – Animated

Winner - Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio 

Runners Up - Turning Red, Marcel the Shell With Shoes On, The Bob’s Burgers Movie

Commentary - Turning Red was a great Pixar film that broke new ground, Marcel was inventive and fun, and I personally loved The Bob's Burgers Movie. But, no one this year can top the work of Guillermo Del Toro in his reinvention of the classic tale of Pinocchio. Not only was it political charged, well written, and had a great voice cast, but more importantly, it was a technical marvel. It should have gotten nominations for Production Design and Visual Effects at the Oscars for its wildly creative take on animation. But it is most likely winning Best Animated Feature at the Oscars, which will be a great moment, and another deserved award for the iconic Guillermo Del Toro. 

Best Picture – Documentary

Winner - All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

Runners Up - All that Breathes, Descendant, Fire of Love, Good Night Oppy

Commentary - Part an autobiographical memory piece, part a story about the impact of art in the world, and part an activist piece against an evil corporation, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed is Laura Poitras magnum opus. Brilliantly blending these elements with an aesthetic flair, Poitras paints a compelling and compassionate look at Nan Golden, and her work, her life, and her activism. She manages to frame this incredibly personal story in the greater context of abuse, addiction, the AIDS crisis, corporate greed, and personal growth. It is a marvel to watch, and it demands repeat viewings. 

Best Director

Winner - Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert “Everything Everywhere All at Once”,

Runners Up -  Steven Spielberg “The Fabelmans”, Gina Prince-Blythewood “The Woman King”, Chan-wook Park “Decision to Leave”, Laura Poitras “All the Beauty and the Bloodshed”

Commentary - See Best Picture - Sci-Fi/Fantasy/Action/Horror

Best Actor – Drama

Winner - Brendan Fraser “The Whale”

Runners Up - Park Hae-il “Decision to Leave”, Gabriel LaBelle “The Fabelmans”, Paul Mescal “Aftersun”, Jeremy Pope “The Inspection”

Commentary - Brendan Fraser's transformation in The Whale wasn't just great makeup work. It was his heart-wrenching performance that proved that he has always been an excellent talent, and is capable of jaw-dropping dramatic work. I am so happy to see him back in Hollywood. His story is so heartbreaking and yet also inspiring at the same time. I hope that this role leads to other great roles and the next, and best yet phase of the career of one of our brightest stars. 

Best Actress – Drama

Winner - Cate Blanchett “TAR”

Runners Up - Viola Davis “The Woman King”, Danielle Deadwyler “Till”, Michelle Williams “The Fabelmans”, Zoe Kazan "She Said"

Commentary - Whew. Cate Blanchett's work in TAR was jaw-dropping. She was furious, commanding, manipulative. and towering in a performance that really did leave you breathless. 

Best Actor – Comedy/Musical

Winner - Billy Eichner "Bros"

Runners Up - Colin Farrell “The Banshees of Inisherin”, Daniel Craig “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”, Sterling K. Brown “Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul”

Commentary - Billy Eichner can be grating to some, and slight in his skill to others. I think Bros proved his critics wrong, by proving that he is an incredibly talented actor, a wonderful comedian, and a great leading man, whose charmingly different approach to his craft is a welcomed breath of fresh air. 

Best Actress – Comedy/Musical

Winner - Michelle Yeoh “Everything Everywhere All at Once”

Runners Up - Regina Hall “Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.” and Emma Thompson “Good Luck to You, Leo Grande”

Commentary - Oh the great Michelle Yeoh. Her transformative, jaw-dropping, funny, emotional, wonderfully warm performance was the heartbeat of Everything Everywhere All at Once. She got to showcase her action skills, her acting skills, and she got to prove that Hollywood missed the mark over these last few decades by not giving her this kind of role before now. Triumph is not a strong enough word to describe her in this film. 

Best Supporting Actor

Winner - Ke Huy Quan “Everything Everywhere All at Once”

Runners Up - Brendan Gleeson “The Banshees of Inisherin”, Brian Tyree Henry “Causeway”, 

Commentary - Ke Huy Quan's Hollywood comeback has been one for the ages. He had given up on Hollywood, and his fear of returning almost kept him from this once in a lifetime role. His return to the screen was an absolute triumph. He was wacky, funny, and at just the right moments, pulled quiet the dramatic punch. He stole every scene he was in, and has stole the hearts of awards watchers this season with his impassioned speeches and heartfelt and honest interviews. I love when the performance and the story mesh for an overdue performer, and Quan's is definitely a Hollywood story for the ages. 

Best Supporting Actress

Winner - Angela Bassett “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”

Runners Up - Kerry Condon “The Banshees of Inisherin”, Jamie Lee Curtis “Everything Everywhere All at Once”, Stephanie Hsu “Everything Everywhere All at Once”, Janelle Monae “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”, Carey Mulligan "She Said"

Commentary - You have to give Ryan Coogler credit. Losing his star, losing his vision, cannot be an easy thing for a filmmaker. Chadwick Boseman was a light in the darkness. His talent, his presence, made Black Panther the superhero of our time. Losing him, took away that light. So what do you do, if you are Coogler? Do you give up? Do you despair? Or do you, instead, press on, and lean on the totality of the strengths of the Black Panther franchise? Coogler had an impossible task, and yet he rose to the challenge. He recognized that Black Panther was a hero because he was surrounded by women whose strength was immeasurable. In his absence, Coogler doubled down on this strength. At this center was the amazing Angela Bassett. A legend whose screen presence is unmatched, Angela Bassett has long ago cemented her status as an icon. She had the enormous task of carrying the weight of Boseman's loss as the mother who lost her son, the leader of a country who lost its king, and the cinematic matriarch of a world that lost its film hero. Her bravura, her ability to channel grief, her presence and her strength on screen were unmatched this year. Coogler knew he had to turn to a queen to save his franchise, and boy did she ever. 

Best Ensemble

Winner - Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Runners Up - Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Woman King, Women Talking

Commentary - Glass Onion, like its predecessor, is one of the year's best ensemble pieces, where well-known actors all bring their A-game, many doing work that is not normally their forte, and bring to life this great comedy. In particular I would like to shout out Janelle Monae and Kate Hudson, who I thought really rose to the occasion, and were standouts among a group of outright stars. 

Best Voiceover/Motion Capture Performance

Winner - Jenny Slate “Marcel the Shell With Shoes On”

Runners Up - Zoe Saldana “Avatar: The Way of Water”, Antonio Banderas “Puss in Boots: The Last Witch”, Gaten Matarazzo “My Father’s Dragon”

Commentary - Now over ten years ago (still hard to believe), my college friends and I were constantly quoting clever lines from the short videos of Marcel the Shell with Shoes On. A lot of the charm of this quirky film invention is on the voice of Jenny Slate, a brilliant and underrated performer, whose innocence, sometimes surprising darkness, and always enigmatic voice performance brought this quirky talking shell to life. 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Winner - Rebecca Lenkiewicz “She Said”

Runners Up - Rian Johnson “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”, Sarah Polley “Women Talking”, Guillermo del Toro, Matthew Robbins, Gris Grimly, Patrick Hale “Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio”

Commentary - I am still kind of surprised that She Said did not land in the Oscar conversation, especially in this category. A new spin on All the President's Men and Spotlight, She Said is another impeccably assembled ensemble piece, with a taught, slow building, and humanizing script from Rebecca Lenkiewicz that was just fantastic. 

Best Original Screenplay

Winner - Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert “Everything Everywhere All at Once”

Runners Up - Martin McDonagh “The Banshees of Inisherin”, Ruben Ostland “Triangle of Sadness”, Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner “The Fabelmans”, Billy Eichner and Nicholas Stoller “Bros”

Commentary - See Best Picture - Sci-Fi/Fantasy/Action/Horror

Best Cinematography

Winner - Claudio Miranda “Top Gun: Maverick”

Runners Up - James Friend “All Quiet on the Western Front”, Linus Sandgren “Babylon”, Hoyte van Hoytema “Nope”

Commentary - How in the hell did Top Gun: Maverick not get nominated for this award at the Oscars? This high-flying adventure, one of the year's glorious cinematic experiences, is made beautiful by the stunning work of Claudio Miranda's masterful cinematic eye. A snub for the ages. 

Best Visual Effects

Winner - Avatar: The Way of Water

Runners Up - Everything Everywhere All at Once and Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Commentary - Duh. I don't care what you think of Avatar: The Way of Water. You and I will probably disagree, but I found the film to be a visual cinematic masterpiece, and proved that you should never discount James Cameron. Others found it the opposite. But anyone who tries to deny its visual effects mastery is a fool. It, like pretty much every James Cameron film, managed to move the art and technological wonder of film making forward, and it, at the very least, deserves recognition for that. 

Worst Film of the Year

Winner - Amsterdam

Runners Up - Blonde, Morbius

Commentary - Blonde was sadly atrocious, Morbius was outright atrocious. But Amsterdam "wins" this award because it should not have been atrocious. David O. Russell, that amazing cast, the talent behind the camera. And yet, it was atrocious. That's the real crime, when you should be amazing, and you still screw it up. Amsterdam managed to achieve that dubious distinction. 

Top 20 Films of 2022

1. Everything Everywhere All At Once

2. The Fabelmans

3. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

4. Bros

5. Avatar: The Way of Water

6. TAR

7. Decision to Leave

8. The Banshees of Inisherin

9. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

10. She Said

11. Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio 

12. The Woman King

13. EO

14. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

15. Top Gun: Maverick

16. Close

17. Nope

18. Aftersun

19. Women Talking

20. (TIE) Triangle of Sadness and Babylon

The Oscar Narrative: Final Oscar Predictions - Final List

Best Picture

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Director

The Daniels "Everything Everywhere All at Once"

Best Actor

Austin Butler "Elvis"

Best Actress

Michelle Yeoh "Everything Everywhere All at Once"

Best Supporting Actor

Ke Huy Quan "Everything Everywhere All at Once"

Best Supporting Actress

Jamie Lee Curtis "Everything Everywhere All at Once"

Best Adapted Screenplay

Sarah Polley "Women Talking"

Best Original Screenplay

The Daniels "Everything Everywhere All at Once"

Best Animated Feature

Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio

Best Documentary Feature

Navalny

Best International Feature

All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)

Best Cinematography

All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Costume Design

Elvis

Best Film Editing

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Elvis

Best Original Score

All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Original Song

RRR - Naatu Naatu

Best Production Design

Babylon

Best Sound

Top Gun: Maverick

Best Visual Effects

Avatar: The Way of Water

Best Animated Short

The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse

Best Documentary Short

The Elephant Whisperers

Best Live Action Short

Le Pupille

The 43rd Golden Raspberry "Razzie" Awards

WORST PICTURE
Blonde 

WORST ACTOR
Jared Leto / Morbius 

WORST ACTRESS
Razzes / Their 43rd Worst Actress Nominations Blunder

WORST REMAKE/RIP-OFF/SEQUEL
Disney’s Pinocchio

WORST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Adria Arjona / Morbius

WORST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Tom Hanks / Elvis

WORST SCREEN COUPLE
Tom Hanks and His Latex-Laden Face (and Ludicrous Accent) Elvis 

WORST DIRECTOR
Colson Baker (aka Machine Gun Kelly) and Mod Sun / Good Mourning

WORST SCREENPLAY
Blonde / Written for the screen by Andrew Dominik, adapted from the Bio-Novel by Joyce Carol Oates 

RAZZIE REDEEMER AWARD
Colin Farrell (From 2004 Worst Actor nominee to 2022 Best Actor Oscar Front-Runner)

The Oscar Narrative: Final Oscar Predictions - Best Picture and Best Director

Best Picture

Will Win - Everything Everywhere All at Once

Could Win - All Quiet on the Western Front

Should Win - Everything Everywhere All at Once or The Fabelmans

Commentary - There is a lot of buzz for All Quiet on the Western Front, and I am not stupid enough to acknowledge that it poses a real threat to upsetting for the Best Picture Oscar. Its BAFTA win proves it has a lot of support. But it is unprecedented in recent years for a film to sweep the PGA, DGA, SAG, and WGA (plus throw in wins for the CDG, ACE, and ADG while were at it). I think that there is a lot of love for Everything Everywhere All At Once, and I think that it is going to win the Best Picture Oscar. You can go back and read my early articles that were skeptical of this film breaking through with Oscar voters. I am proud to say I was wrong, and now it is poised to win the biggest award of the night. 

Best Director

Will Win - The Daniels "Everything Everywhere All at Once"

Could Win - Steven Spielberg "The Fabelmans"
Should Win - Spielberg or The Daniels

Commentary - There was a lot of buzz for Spielberg early on, and it resulted in a Golden Globe win. Since then though, The Daniels have swept and are poised for Oscar victory. 

The Oscar Narrative: Final Oscar Predictions - Best Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, and Supporting Actress

Best Actor

Will Win - Austin Butler "Elvis"

Could Win - Brendan Fraser "The Whale" or Colin Farrell "The Banshees of Inisherin"

Should Win - Brendan Fraser "The Whale"

Commentary - Look I have nothing against Austin Butler’s performance, he did a great job as Elvis, but boy is he thirsty for that Oscar. The whole keeping his accent thing, the constant butt kissing this entire season. He wants that Oscar, and he is probably going to get it, but he tried way too hard. His film is going to win several Oscars, and has the Best Picture nod. But I really hope Brendan Fraser surprises. He has SAG and Critics Choice, Butler has BAFTA and the Globe. I think Butler has played the right game and hit the right notes. I also am hearing rumblings that a third contender, Colin Farrell, could take advantage of the split and surprise. That would be quite the turn of events.

Best Actress

Will Win - Michelle Yeoh "Everything Everywhere All at Once"

Could Win - Cate Blanchett "TAR"

Should Win - Michelle Yeoh "Everything Everywhere All at Once"

Commentary - So this is two-way race between Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh. Blanchett is still strong as TAR has a lot of support and she has the BAFTA, but in a tough two way race, and the SAG going to Michelle Yeoh, it feels like momentum is moving in her direction. 

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win - Ke Huy Quan "Everything Everywhere All at Once"

Could Win - Barry Keoghan "The Banshees of Inisherin"

Should Win - Ke Huy Quan "Everything Everywhere All at Once"

Commentary - Barry Keoghan won at BAFTA, and he is the most likely to upset. But this is Ke Huy Quan’s to lose. He has the performance, the comeback story, and has won everything else. I think he is the most solid of the four categories.

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win - Jamie Lee Curtis "Everything Everywhere All at Once"

Could Win - Kerry Condon "The Banshees of Inisherin" or Angela Bassett "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever"

Should Win - Angela Bassett "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever"

Commentary - A tight three-way race that is poised to be a jaw-dropper until the end. Bassett won the Globe and the Critics Choice, but I worry that the Marvel factor hurts her. Kerry Condon is really an intriguing pick, after her BAFTA win. But SAG has been a major predictor for this award in recent years, and Jamie Lee Curtis' upset win has made me switch to her in a close race. 

The Oscar Narrative: Final Oscar Predictions - Best Original Screenplay, Adapted Screenplay, Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature

Best Original Screenplay

Will Win - The Daniels "Everything Everywhere All at Once"

Could Win - Martin McDonagh "The Banshees of Inisherin" 

Should Win - The Daniels "Everything Everywhere All at Once", Martin McDonagh "The Banshees of Inisherin", or Tony Kushner and Steven Spielberg "The Fabelmans"

Commentary - This feels like the Get Out year, where you also had Three Billboards and Lady Bird, and nobody knew who to choose. The WGA vs. the BAFTA. Do they sweep with the BP frontrunner? Or do they give the consolation prize to McDonagh or Spielberg and Kushner. I am personally good whomever they choose, but I feel that the overwhelming love for Everything Everywhere All at Once will lead to a mini-sweep. 

Best Adapted Screeplay

Will Win - Sarah Polley "Women Talking"

Could Win - Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell "All Quiet On the Western Front" or Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, Christopher McQuarrie, Peter Craig, and Justin Marks "Top Gun: Maverick"

Should Win - Rian Johnson "Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery"

Commentary - A tight race. I am going with a more traditional screenplay winner in Women Talking, over the war epic and the action adventure epic, neither of which fit the usual bill for winning this award. But All Quiet did win at BAFTA (where Women Talking was snubbed), and is quiet popular. It could surprise.

Best Animated Feature

Will Win - Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio 

Could Win - Turning Red

Should Win - Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio

Commentary - The love Pixar, but it looks like GDT's Pinocchio is going to easily win here after sweeping every major award.

Best Documentary Feature

Will Win - Navalny 

Could Win - Fire of Love or All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

Should Win - All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

Commentary - All the Beauty and the Bloodshed is a masterpiece, and I still have my fingers crossed that it triumphs in an upset. But I think this is between the feel good favorite of Fire of Love and the politically relevant favorite of Navalny. Given the headlines, I think these voters are going to want to give Navalny and its anti-Putin message some air time on a global stage.

Best International Feature

Will Win - All Quiet on the Western Front

Could Win - The Quiet Girl or Argentina, 1985

Should Win - Close

Commentary - Duh. 

The Oscar Narrative: Final Oscar Predictions - Best Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Production Design

Best Cinematography

Will Win - James Friend "All Quiet On the Western Front"

Could Win - Mandy Walker "Elvis"

Should Win - Florian Hoffmeister "TAR"

Commentary - Mandy Walker broke the glass ceiling at the ASC awards, and All Quiet won the BAFTA. I think the war epic will win over Oscar voters. 

Best Costume Design

Will Win - Elvis

Could Win - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever or Babylon

Should Win - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 

Commentary - Ruth Carter's work is stunning, yet again, but I don't think she repeats after losing the CDG to Everything Everywhere All at Once. Elvis won the BAFTA, and won the period award at CDG. I think that equals Oscar voting. 

Best Film Editing

Will Win - Everything Everywhere All at Once

Could Win - Top Gun: Maverick

Should Win - Everything Everywhere All at Once

Commentary - Top Gun and Everything split the Eddie, and Everything's only BAFTA win was in this category. That shows me that in this category it is incredibly strong. Also, it is a LOT of editing. I think it wins here, but Top Gun is the slick film that often wins here.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Will Win - Elvis

Could Win - The Whale or All Quiet on the Western Front

Should Win - The Whale

Commentary - Elvis won at BAFTA and did well at its guild. I think it matches with Best Actor, and wins here.

Best Production Design

Will Win - Babylon

Could Win - Elvis, All Quiet on the Western Front, or Avatar: The Way of Water

Should Win - Babylon

Commentary - I think Babylon should win, and it won ADG, BAFTA, and Critics Choice. But a lot of BP nominations are in this category, which could hurt it. 

The Oscar Narrative: Final Oscar Predictions - Best Original Score, Original Song, Sound, Visual Effects, and Shorts

Best Original Score

Will Win - Volker Bertelmann "All Quiet on the Western Front"

Could Win - John Williams "The Fabelmans" or Justin Hurwitz "Babylon"

Should Win - John Williams "The Fabelmans"

Commentary - This category has few precursors, which always makes it a hard one to predict. All Quiet won the BAFTA, Babylon won the Globe, and there has been a lot of talk about John Williams winning for the first time in decades. I am going with war epic All Quiet, as the only crossover award, and a big Best Picture contender. But this one could surprise, and personally I want to see Williams win one more time. 

Best Original Song

Will Win - RRR - Naatu Naatu

Could Win - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - Lift Me Up

Should Win - RRR - Naatu Naatu

Commentary - Despite RRR not getting a lot of traction with the industry, the infectious Naatu Naatu has managed to be strong throughout the season. I think it wins. But, Rihanna, Super Bowl Halftime Show, lots of positive buzz. Watch out for Lift Me Up.

Best Sound

Will Win - Top Gun: Maverick

Could Win - All Quiet on the Western Front or Elvis

Should Win - Top Gun: Maverick

Commentary - War Movie, movie musical biopic, both are natural winners here. And All Quiet won the BAFTA. But I think that CAS winner, and film that will do much better with American voters than British ones, Top Gun: Maverick, and film whose sound work is a character in the film, will take this award in an interestingly tight race. 

Best Visual Effects

Will Win - Avatar: The Way of Water

Could Win - Top Gun: Maverick or All Quiet on the Western Front

Should Win - Avatar: The Way of Water

Commentary - I would be jaw-dropped if anything else won. And honestly, whatever you think of Avatar, it is easily the best of the bunch.

Best Animated Short

Will Win - The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and the Horse

Could Win - Ice Merchants, My Year of Dicks

Should Win - The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and the Horse

Best Documentary Short

Will Win - The Elephant Whisperers

Could Win - Stranger at the Gate

Should Win - The Elephant Whisperers

Best Live Action Short

Will Win - Le Pupille

Could Win - An Irish Goodbye

Should Win - Le Pupille