The Oscar Narrative: Final Nomination Predictions - Best Adapted and Original Screenplay

Best Adapted Screenplay

Florian Zeller "The Father"

Ruben Santiago-Hudson "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"

Kemp Powers "One Night in Miami"

Chloe Zhao "Nomadland"

Ramin Bahrani "The White Tiger" 

Other Contenders - News of the World, The Mauritanian, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, The Dig

Commentary - Two films got both WGA and BAFTA in this odd year, The Father and The White Tiger. The Father was expected, and is a lock. The White Tiger was not expected, but it got both, and despite it not really being a major player in any other category, I have moved it into my predictions. Nomadland is also a lock. Not eligible for WGA, it did get in a BAFTA. Despite not getting in at BAFTA, I fully expect One Night in Miami and Ma Rainey's Black Bottom to make the cut here on the American side of the coin. They both got WGA nominations, and are huge Best Picture contenders. In the case of Ma Rainey, I did some research, and Fences was also snubbed by BAFTA. I don't think that British writer's will connect with August Wilson's singular American stories the way American writers will. News of the World was in my top five forever, but it is clearly not the above-the-line contender we thought. I think it will be relegated to technical categories. The Mauritanian is the one to watch for. The Brits clearly loved the film, as did the Globes. It got in at BAFTA in this category, and could get some surprise nods Monday morning. Finally, The Dig got a BAFTA nod and Borat got a WGA nod (and its first film was nominated for Original Screenplay). Neither should be discounted from this suddenly exciting race. 

Best Original Screenplay

Jack Fincher "Mank"  

Lee Isaac Chung "Minari"

Emerald Fennell "Promising Young Woman"

Darius Marder, Abraham Marder, and Derek Cianfrance "Sound of Metal"

Aaron Sorkin "The Trial of the Chicago 7"

Other Contenders - Judas and the Black Messiah, Another Round, Soul, Palm Springs

Commentary - Promising Young Woman and The Trial of the Chicago 7 both got WGA and BAFTA, and the Oscar is a race between the two. Mank wasn't eligible at WGA, but did get in a BAFTA, and remember the writing awards were not juried, so that shows broad support. Judas and the Black Messiah and Sound of Metal got in at WGA. Judas and the Black Messiah is powerful, timely, and coming in strong at the finish line. But I am sticking with Sound of Metal. I just think it is the film of the two that feels like a good fit with the Writer's branch of the Academy. The only reason I am not including Judas and the Black Messiah as well is because I think Minari, which was ineligible at WGA, and somehow missed the cut at BAFTA, is still going to take a slot. It is so strong overall, I think it will overcome those hurdles of key missing nominations. Also watch out for Another Round (got BAFTA nod), Soul (Pixar does well here), and Palm Springs (WGA Nod).