The Oscar Narrative: Final Oscar Predictions - Best Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Visual Effects, and Shorts

Best Sound Editing
Will Win - Dunkirk
Could Win - Baby Driver or Blade Runner 2049
Should Win - Dunkirk or Baby Driver
Commentary - The only other Best Picture nominee in this category is The Shape of Water, and unless an unexpected sweep is coming, I think this one goes to Dunkirk. It is clearly well liked, and war films tend to do well in the sound categories (Zero Dark Thirty, Hacksaw Ridge, The Hurt Locker, Black Hawk Down, American Sniper, Letters from Iwo Jima, etc.). This year, without a musical, I think that these categories will match up. The one film I think can upset here is Baby Driver. It had unexpected support in the Academy, has great music (which does well in this category), and whose sound is distinctive. But it will be hard to beat the more popular Dunkirk, whose sound work is also fantastic and distinctive.

Best Sound Mixing
Will Win - Dunkirk
Could Win - Baby Driver or Blade Runner 2049
Should Win - Baby Driver or Dunkirk
Commentary - See Sound Editing

Best Visual Effects
Will Win - Blade Runner 2049
Could Win - War for the Planet of the Apes or Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Should Win - War for the Planet of the Apes or Blade Runner 2049
Commentary - Most folks are predicting that this is the year that the Planet of the Apes trilogy, and its groundbreaking special effects will finally win Oscar gold. This could finally be the year, considering that it is not up against a Best Picture nominee (Hugo). But then again, when Dawn was nominated, it had no Best Picture nominees up against it. Instead it lost to the technical achievement film that had broader support across the categories (Interstellar). I think that with its BAFTA win, a similar fate will happen to the finale of the trilogy. While Blade Runner 2049 did not score a Best Picture or Director nomination. But it has five overall nominations across the craft categories, and has much more support than any of the other nominees, and is fantastic visual effects work. I think it takes the prize.

Best Animated Short
Will Win - Dear Basketball
Could Win - Negative Space or Garden Party

Best Documentary Short
Will Win - Edith + Eddie
Could Win - Knife Skills or Heroin(e)

Best Live Action Short
Will Win - DeKalb Elementary
Could Win  - The Silent Child or The Eleven O'Clock